The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5906, up 0.54% on the day.
New Zealand Inflation Expectations Rise
New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations climbed to 2.29% in the second quarter, up from 2.06% in Q1, its highest level since last May. The survey also predicted that one-year inflation expectations would rise to 2.41% in Q2, up from 2.15% in the first quarter, also the highest since last May.
The rise in inflation expectations can be viewed as a "Trump bump" as consumers are concerned that US tariffs will lead to higher inflation. For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the increase is a reminder of the upside risks for inflation, but at the same time, inflation and inflation expectations are within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 1%-3%.
Will RBNZ Cut in May?
With inflation largely contained, the RBNZ is looking to continue lowering interest rates in order to boost the economy. The RBNZ cut rates last month to 3.5% from 3.75% and is expected to cut rates again at the May 28 meeting.
The problem for Bank policymakers is the uncertainty over President Trump’s erratic trade policy, which has made it tricky to make growth and inflation forecasts. The US and China engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff war which resulted in massive tariffs, only to suddenly reach a temporary agreement to slash tariffs.
Will this lead to a permanent agreement or will the US and China resume their damaging trade war? It’s unclear what happens next, especially given the unpredictability of Donald Trump.
The US wraps up the week with UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations for May. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve to 53.4 from an upwardly revised 52.2. Inflation expectations surged in April to 6.5% from 4.7% and are projected to rise to 6.6%, as consumers remain anxious about inflation.
NZD/USD Technical
- NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.58, and 85d is testing resistance at 0.5909. Above, there is resistance at 0.5940
- 0.5854 and 0.5830 are the next support levels