Dollar slips ahead of Fed rate decision; Powell’s speech in spotlight
The volume wasn’t great, but the Russell 2000 (IWM) is again challenging $252 resistance as sellers seemed reluctant to take profits. We may see volume if $252 is breached, but it’s got to get there. The other beneficiary was Bitcoin ($BTCUSD), it was struggling a little but is now challenging the last swing high.
The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has returned to an overbought state with the MACD above the bullish zero line. The index has outperformed the Nasdaq since bouncing off November lows. Breakouts come from an overbought state and the technical picture now is better than it was in mid-October, the last time it was challenging $252s.
The Nasdaq posted a small gain, but it still has a way to go before it challenges the October high, as the Russell 2000 is doing. Technicals are net positive, but there is still a bit of an AI hangover to overcome.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) had generated a solid bullish reversal spike at $80K in November, but has stumbled a little in the bounce - at least until Tuesday. There may be a small day-trade to the 50-day MA, although long-term investors could be buyers here, although as a long-term investment, I’m not entirely won over by cryptocurrencies (but Bitcoin would be the best of them).
The S&P 500 is similar to the Nasdaq. Shorts could still run a trade here with a tight stop above 6.9K. Technicals are net bullish, although they are in a little better shape. The index is underperforming peer indices and is the "weakest" of the group.
There is a buying opportunity in the Russell 2000, given the relative neutrality of the Nasdaq and S&P. If Bitcoin is able to challenge its 50-day MA, it will offer a trading opportunity in the Nasdaq to make new all-time highs. If there is a breakout in the Russell 2000 ($IWM), it will quickly push the index into the 5% zone of historic price extremes relative to its 200-day MA.