US stock futures dip as Trump’s firing of Cook sparks Fed independence fears
Silver futures are unfolding in a pivotal technical zone where short-term momentum and longer-term structural cycles are beginning to converge. The market has staged a strong rebound from last week’s low at $36.96, climbing nearly $2.13 to test resistance at $39.09 before stalling. This surge coincided with a clustering of VC PMI buy levels and Fibonacci retracement supports, underscoring the significance of the current trading range.
The weekly VC PMI at $38.37 now serves as the equilibrium fulcrum, magnetizing price action back into balance. Trading above this level suggests that bullish forces remain in control, with the daily VC PMI pivot at $38.57 acting as immediate overhead resistance. Friday’s spike to $39.09 marked the upper threshold of the short-term distribution zone. Without fresh momentum, the market has retraced slightly, consolidating between $38.37 and $38.70.
From a structural perspective, the Fibonacci retracement map confirms this balance:
- The 38.2% retracement at $38.27 and 50% retracement at $38.02 align closely with the daily Buy 1 ($38.17) and weekly Buy 1 ($37.64) levels.
- The 61.8% retracement at $37.76 and 78.6% retracement at $37.40 reinforce the daily Buy 2 ($37.20) zone.
This tight confluence of levels forms a high-probability support band between $38.17 and $37.20, a zone where professional traders are likely to accumulate long positions if tested again.
The MACD momentum profile confirms the shift in energy: after a sharp reversal from oversold conditions, the indicator has now flattened near the zero line. This suggests that the initial thrust higher is losing steam, but the lack of breakdown implies consolidation rather than reversal. The market is essentially “catching its breath,” digesting gains before the next directional move.
Cycle analysis adds further depth. The short 30-day Gann cycle points to August 25–26 as a minor turning point window, aligning with today’s pause after the recent run. The longer 360-day harmonic cycle, anchored from the September 2024 pivot low, continues to point toward higher volatility into late August and September 2025. This suggests that current consolidation is part of a broader energy build, where Silver may be preparing for a more explosive move as we enter the seasonal cycle window for metals.
From the Square of 9 perspective, the $39.08–$39.26 zone aligns with a resistance harmonic tied to the $36.96 low. Breaking through this resistance decisively could propel price toward the next harmonic projection in the $40.20–$40.50 range. Conversely, failure to hold the $38.17 daily buy level exposes Silver to retracement into the deeper $37.20–$37.40 zone, which also aligns with the 78.6% retracement and a prior weekly support shelf.
Conclusion
Silver is at a critical inflection point, consolidating just above its weekly equilibrium at $38.37. The alignment of Fibonacci retracements with VC PMI buy levels suggests a strong accumulation base between $38.17 and $37.20. Momentum has cooled, but cycles indicate that this is likely a temporary pause before volatility returns. A decisive breakout above $39.09–$39.26 would confirm a bullish extension toward the $40+ harmonics, while a close below $38.17 would signal a deeper correction into the $37.20–$37.40 band.
In essence, Silver is coiling—balancing between immediate resistance and layered supports—awaiting the next cycle trigger that will determine whether it launches higher or retests its base.
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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.