S&P 500 falls on pressure from retail stocks, weak jobless claims
Silver is attempting to stabilize after an intense retracement that drove prices to a session low of $36.96, directly testing the Daily Buy 1 level at $36.92. This precise reaction underscores the predictive strength of the VC PMI framework, which identifies equilibrium and high-probability turning points in advance. The market’s rebound from this zone has carried it back above the Daily VC PMI mean at $37.59, shifting the immediate bias from defensive to constructive.
VC PMI & Fibonacci Confluence
The framework sets today’s Daily Sell 1 target at $37.93 and Sell 2 at $38.55. These levels align closely with overhead Fibonacci retracements, with the 23.6% level intersecting at $37.40 and reinforcing the significance of the $37.90–$38.10 band. The weekly structure adds additional context: Weekly Buy 1 at $37.24 and Buy 2 at $36.28 form a strong demand cluster, while Weekly VC PMI at $38.09 is the pivot between bearish continuation and bullish breakout. The higher weekly targets, $38.67 and $39.36, frame the upside potential if momentum extends.
Momentum & Market Psychology
The MACD histogram has turned positive for the first time in several sessions, confirming a shift in momentum. Volume expanded sharply on the reversal from $36.96, reflecting short covering and opportunistic buying at the lower boundary of the trading range. The psychology here is classic mean reversion: traders who pressed the downside into support are being forced to cover, while contrarians positioned near VC PMI buy levels are rewarded with immediate gains.
This interplay of supply absorption and renewed demand is the foundation of sustainable reversals. For confirmation, silver needs to consolidate above $37.59; doing so opens the pathway to the $37.93–$38.55 resistance zone, which doubles as a profit-taking region for short-term longs.
Forward Cycle Outlook
From a Gann cycle perspective, silver remains in the advancing leg of the 270° to 360° rotation off the September 28, 2024 anchor low. The final 360° completion is due September 28, 2025, meaning this current phase into late August is statistically prone to volatility and interim highs before the cycle trough. The recent $36.96 test may represent the last meaningful corrective low before the market attempts a late-summer rally into the $38–$39 region, consistent with both weekly VC PMI sell targets and Square of 9 harmonics pointing toward resistance in this price band.
Conclusion
Silver has reaffirmed the precision of mean reversion trading by respecting its Daily Buy 1 support and reversing sharply higher. With momentum indicators turning positive and time cycles aligning into late August, the bias favors a continuation toward $38.55–$39.36. A close below $37.24 would negate this constructive outlook and re-expose $36.28.
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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.