S&P 500 Eyes Breakout Continuation, but Morning Gap Down Could Derail Momentum

Published 02/05/2025, 05:44
Updated 02/05/2025, 08:18

As the charts show, we have a Nasdaq and S&P 500 that both pushed through their 50-day MAs, even though daily candlesticks look ’toppy’.

The Nasdaq closed the day with net bullish technicals and, beyond, the likely retest of the April swing low. The Nasdaq has already started to outperform the Russell 2000 after a period of indecision throughout 2025.

COMPQ-Daily Chart

While the S&P 500 has managed to push through the 50-day MA it hasn’t yet turned net bullish in its technicals. There should be support at the gap, but given the prior rally, I suspect a larger pullback might be in order.

SPX-Daily Chart

The Russell 2000 (IWM) continues to lag the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and hasn’t yet tested $200 resistance. Yesterday’s gain didn’t enjoy the gaps higher as seen in the latter indices, but it still favors bulls.

IWM-Daily Chart

Bitcoin enjoyed a secondary surge as it continues to recover from its April swing low. Technicals are net bullish and it looks best placed to continue its advance.

BTC/USD-Daily Chart

Another index to watch is the Dow Industrial Average ($INDU). It broke through declining resistance, although finds itself at 50-day MA resistance.

INDU-Daily Chart

For today, we could have a bearish close in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but we also have a resistance breakout in these indices (and the Dow Industrial Average). A morning gap down would confirm a retracement, although I wouldn’t look for it to last long.

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