The S&P 500 finished lower on Wednesday by roughly 25 bps, leading to a slight increase in volume for S&P 500 futures. However, there’s little to glean from this drop yet; a more decisive move is needed to establish conviction, as the index remains above its 10-day exponential moving average and still within the rising wedge pattern.
Interestingly, the BTIC S&P 500 Total Return futures traded lower again yesterday, with second-quarter generic contracts declining by 3 points to 37.5, effectively returning to the lows observed in early May.
It’s notable—and somewhat puzzling—that these futures continue trending lower even as the S&P 500 cash market has moved sharply in the opposite direction. It is sending a deafening message of complacency in the cash markets.
Today’s PPI report may be more revealing than yesterday’s CPI data, especially considering that the prices paid indices in the manufacturing sector started rising several months ago. So far, the year-over-year increase in the PPI hasn’t fully reflected the recent upticks seen in various Fed surveys and even the ISM data.
Speaking of which, oil prices surged yesterday to close above $68, which is particularly noteworthy given the previous struggles around the $66 level. At this stage, a move back into the mid-$70s can’t be ruled out.
As I write this, news is emerging that President Trump plans to send a letter within the next two weeks detailing the unilateral tariff rates for each country.
This development has EUR/USD trading above 1.15, breaking through resistance and the ascending triangle pattern. From a technical perspective, I don’t see any reason EUR/USD can’t move toward 1.19, which appears to be the next logical target.