Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors are looking for answers to signs of slowing growth, autonomous driving, and potential margin pressure. Also updates on robotaxi, impact of tariffs, and the most important is Musk’s time with DOGE.
Key Highlights:
- Tesla plans to delay the launch of its lower-cost vehicle from mid-2025 by several months, Reuters reported Friday.
- The company reported a 13% drop in first-quarter vehicle deliveries from a year ago.
- Tesla has potential to disrupt the automotive industry and power generation industries with its technology for EVs, AVs, batteries, and solar generation systems.
- The successful development and deployment of the Optimus robot could address labor shortages in various sectors, with analysts estimating that each 1% of U.S. labor potentially replaced by Tesla’s Optimus could add approximately $100 per share in net present value.
- The Robotaxi segment represents a potentially transformative opportunity, opening a new revenue stream and significantly improving the economics of Tesla’s vehicle fleet by operating with lower costs and increased utilization rates.
- Intensifying competition in the EV market, especially from Chinese manufacturers, poses a significant threat to Tesla’s margins, potentially leading to price reductions or increased incentives to maintain market share.
TSLA Q1 2025 earnings after-market Tuesday, April 22, 2025.
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Analyst Ratings |
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SOURCE |
BUY |
HOLD |
SELL |
|
Refinitiv |
26 |
16 |
12 |
|
TipRanks |
16 |
11 |
12 |
Earnings Expectation
|
Earnings Expectation |
|
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EPS |
0.41 USD |
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Revenue |
21.34 B USD |
Financial Health History
Option Statistics
Put/Call ratio suggests the following three scenarios:
- With Put/Call ratio between 1.6756 to 0.6287 for the next four upcoming expiries suggests that the overall option traders’ position is inclined towards Puts.
- Lower earnings and guidance could trigger a sharp sell-off.
- Better-than-expected guidance would trigger a gradual rise.
- The option market is showing a large net negative Gamma at the 200 strike versus a large net positive gamma exposure at the 400 strike over the spectrum of April 2025 to Jan 2027.
Technical Analysis Perspective
- TSLA lost all its post-US election gains. Stock moved from 244 (Nov 04, 2024) to 488 (Dec 18, 2024), which closed on April 21, 2025, at 227.50.
- Since the inception, prices have staged a rally followed by a rectangle consolidation on monthly charts.
- The magnitude of rally depends on the time spent in rectangular consolidation.
- Longer consolidation between 2014 to 2019 resulted in a sharp rally between 2020 to 2022.
- TSLA has been trading in a larger rectangle-like pattern since 2022, challenging a robust resistance around 430/450 middle support around 225/220 and base support at 130/120.
- A move to 430/450 is likely, provided TSLA holds 225/220 post earnings and closes the week above it. Which also depends on earnings and future guidance.
- Failure to do so will result in a drop to 130/120 in the coming months.
Monthly Candlestick Chart
TSLA Seasonality Chart
- TSLA closes 4.7% higher in April 53% of the time since 2010.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners (WA:CPAP), and Bridge Information Systems.
He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training. Follow us on “X” formerly Twitter “@twtlearning.”