TSX higher on employment data
August is now history, and stocks shocked many pundits by rising. However, that shouldn’t be the biggest financial news story in August. You wouldn’t know it from the headlines or leading statistical services – but silver rose 10% in August (and 38% for the year), breaching $40 an ounce. Gold rose 5.5% and most importantly breached $3,500 – 100 times its fixed price back in 1970. Platinum rose 6.16% last month and is up a phenomenal 53% for the year, yet everybody is crowing about the much smaller gains in stocks last month (and year-to-date), perhaps just because August is often a negative month for stocks.
We follow Bespoke Investment Group (BIG) data closely, so searching their month-ending Bespoke Report last weekend, with its usual wonderful and thorough market summary, the words “Gold” and “Silver” and “Platinum” were nowhere to be found in BIG’s exhaustive 32-page market summary.
That’s good news to me, since whenever the press puts gold on page one of the most popular newspapers or investment journals, that is often a sign that gold is peaking and due for a sharp correction. Such large price drops happened in 1980 and 2011, after gold hit new highs of $850 and $1,900, respectively, but a collapse soon followed, because most of those past gains came in just two months, unlike the current rise, which has been gradual over the last two years – thereby earning the headline, a “Stealth Bull Market.”
The Metals vs. the Markets – August and Year-to-Date 2025
As this table shows, platinum has trounced stocks – and even gold – with nearly 53% gains so far this year. Silver is next, at +37.5%, then Gold at +31%. Meanwhile, the four main stock indexes average 8.5%, led by NASDAQ, at +11%, but the precious metals have quadrupled the major stock market indexes.
Stop the Presses! In the three days since last Friday, gold has gained another $91 (+2.6%) to $3,565; silver gained $1.56 (+3.9%) to $41.76; and platinum gained $65 (+4.8%) to $1,431. While the stock market closed in August, last Friday, commodity markets pushed metals higher over the Labor Day weekend.
So, is this a “bubble” market in the making, like some past gold surges? Probably not, due to the gradual nature of the rise and the lack of press coverage, but let’s take a look at gold’s history for a few clues:
Past Gold Bull Markets – the “Real Thing” vs. “Fool’s Gold”
Going back 50 years, gold suffered deep dips in September of 1975 and 1976, reaching $103 in the 1976 dip. Gold then went on to rise 8-fold in less than 3-1/2-years, but the irony of gold’s depressing dip 50 years ago is that Americans were only free to own gold – after over 41 years of gold prohibition – after it had risen from the fixed $35-level to $195 at the end of 1974, when Americans could legally buy gold.
Imagine that bizarre fact: In this “Land of the Free,” Americans were one of very few nations not allowed to own gold – as it multiplied nearly 10-fold (from $20.67 to $195), but as soon as Americans were given legalized access to the metal, it fell by nearly 50%, shaking out any “weak hands” before the run to $850.
These charts depict gold as volatile and erratic, but we’ve seen three decade-long gold surges since 1970:
- From $35 to $850 (+2,330%) in the decade from 1970 to 1980
- From $255 to $1,905 (+647%) in the decade from 2001 to 2011
- From $1,055 to $3,565 (+238%) in the decade from 2015 to 2025, as charted below:
As this chart shows, the fastest recent rise in gold began in 2023, after two new wars began– in Ukraine and Gaza. Gold’s gains in 2022 were modest and gradual, but the 2023 Hamas invasion of Israel and the quick reprisal against Gaza sent gold soaring from $1,819 just before the Hamas strike to $3,500+ now.
Despite that two-year gold gain, this isn’t the kind of gold market bubble we saw in 2011, during the debt downgrade and deficit ceiling debates in Congress. The S&P then fell 19% in three months, while gold gained 29% in just over two months. That was a clear overreaction, generating a “reversion to the mean.”
This time around, gold’s rise was more gradual, and gold didn’t act like a stock market hedge. This time, since 2015 or 2023, stocks were rising, too, but at a slower pace. But what’s next, in the rest of 2025?
Americans didn’t get on the gold bandwagon until 2025. Most gold buying since 2022 came from central banks, China, India and some other gold-friendly nations. From October 2022 until the start of 2025, North American gold ETF demand was down. GLD (the leading gold bullion ETF) saw over $5 billion in outflows. This year, however, Americans wised up, buying nearly $10 billion of GLD, mostly by April.
The best well-run gold mining firms can leverage the price of gold in earnings. For instance, if mining an ounce of gold costs $2,000 (all costs in), the mining company makes a slim 10% profit with gold at $2,200, but they make a hefty 75% profit at $3,500-gold.
In the quarterly earnings season just past, 26 of the top 34 gold-oriented stocks beat consensus earnings estimates, and those that didn’t “beat” still saw improved profits. After all, the average gold price in the second quarter was $3,286, 15% higher than the average first quarter price of $2,862, so if gold costs $2,000 an ounce to mine (all costs), profit margins rose from 43% in the first quarter to 64%, a 49% gain.
So far this quarter, the average gold price is $3,350, so profits are still rising for the well-run gold miners.
What’s ahead? September is historically a weak-month for stocks (the worst of all 12-months), while September has been among gold’s strongest months, often marking a turnaround or a rally, partly due to global jewelry fabricators preparing their ornate products for the upcoming six-month holiday gift-giving seasons in the most populous and gold-friendly nations on earth, starting with Diwali in India, falling on October 20-22 this year, then Christmas in America and Europe, followed by the Chinese New Year (starting February 6, 2026) Valentine’s Day (February 14) and Ramadan, starting February 28, 2026.
August through February is the best gold performance span, giving rise to this gold mantra for traders:
Profit From the Golden Arch. Buy in July and Sell in March.
However, I would never follow this advice. Gold gained over 10% in March of 2025!