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As someone who’s been involved in capital markets his entire adult life, I can safely say that gold investors haven’t seen a period like this in decades. The third quarter of 2025 was nothing short of historic, and in many ways, I believe we’re witnessing the beginning of a new era for the yellow metal.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global demand reached 1,313 metric tons in Q3, the highest quarterly figure ever recorded. In dollar terms, the world spent $146 billion on gold, another record, while the metal broke 13 new all-time highs during the quarter alone. Prices averaged $3,456 an ounce, up 40% from a year earlier.
And then came October. Gold blasted through $4,400 for the first time ever before cooling off. Even after a normal, expected pullback, the metal continues to trade above $4,100.
The Love Trade and Fear Trade Working in Tandem
The gold drivers in Q3 included all the usual suspects. Central banks continued to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, adding another 220 metric tons. This brought total buying in 2025 so far to 634 tons, far above what we saw in the decade before the pandemic, according to the WGC.
Investors also poured into gold ETFs at the fastest pace since 2020. Meanwhile, demand for bars and coins stayed above the 300-ton mark for the fourth straight quarter, something we haven’t seen in over 12 years.
If you need another reason, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates, though a December rate cut is now being called into question. Long-term real yields are softening, historically a tailwind for gold. The Love Trade and Fear Trade are working in tandem.
Our Best Performing Gold Mining Stocks
Against this backdrop, gold mining stocks have surged. As part of our investment process, we always examine which names are outperforming gold itself, both quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and year-over-year (YoY). I wanted to share several of the names, which we hold in at least one of our metals and mining funds. All data is as of September 30 and priced in local currency, mostly the Canadian dollar.
Barrick Gold (LEAPS Calls)
+207% in Q3
Let’s start with the standout in the QoQ category. Barrick Gold, which we have exposure to through long-dated January 2027 call options, was up an impressive 207% in Q3.
Barrick, which is considering a move from Toronto to the U.S., has been a textbook turnaround story. After years of lagging peers, the company has sharpened its focus, sold off non-core assets and made free cash flow growth and balance sheet strength top priorities.
When you combine a disciplined senior producer with gold above $4,000 an ounce, you get powerful margin expansion. And because we held Barrick through LEAP options rather than common shares, the torque to rising gold prices was magnified. The strategy paid off handsomely.
McFarlane Lake Mining
+341% in Q3
Another strong performer this year has been McFarlane Lake Mining, up 341% in Q3. McFarlane, also based in Toronto, focuses on the Juby Gold Project in Ontario’s Abitibi Greenstone Belt, a region that’s produced more than 200 million ounces of gold over the past century.
After acquiring Juby from Aris Mining in September, McFarlane updated its mineral estimate to roughly 1 million ounces; the surrounding land package, which includes the McMillan property, offers meaningful exploration potential.
McFarlane’s leadership team has decades of mine-building experience in Ontario, and they’ve earned credibility within the investment community by moving quickly on permitting and geological work. As gold prices have climbed, investors have rewarded junior explorers with scale and momentum, and McFarlane was one of the clearest beneficiaries.
Omai Gold Mines
+650% for 12-Month Period
Let’s turn to names that dominated on a YoY basis. The single biggest mover in our portfolio over the past 12 months was Omai Gold Mines, which climbed an extraordinary 650% through the end of September. The Toronto-based company operates the historic Omai Mine in Guyana, one of the most prolific gold regions in South America.
Investors love brownfield opportunities with proven geology and existing infrastructure, and Omai has delivered exactly that. In an August report, the company reported 2.1 million ounces Indicated and 4.4 million ounces Inferred across its Wenot open-pit system and the deeper, high-grade Gilt Creek, both in Guyana.
An earlier economic study of Wenot, released in April 2024, estimated a net present value (NPV) of more than half a billion dollars at $1,950 gold. At today’s (much) higher gold price, the project’s valuation has undoubtedly soared.
Others
Other names in the gold mining sector that also delivered exceptional performance in Q3 included Andean Precious Metals, Vault Minerals and Felix Gold.
Andean, up 183% in Q3, reported the best financial results in its history, with record revenue, record earnings and a record cash position. Vault Minerals, up 59%, saw its own record quarter, with more than 92,000 ounces produced, $703 million in cash and bullion and no debt. Australia-based Felix Gold, up an incredible 351% in the third quarter, continued to advance its gold-and-antimony discovery in Alaska’s Fairbanks district, positioning itself not just as a precious metal explorer but also as part of the U.S.’s emerging domestic supply chain for critical minerals.
Preparing for the Next Leg Higher
Looking ahead, I believe the setup for Q4 remains constructive. Gold has already had a phenomenal year, rising 66% year-to-date at its high on October 20, but the forces at work this cycle remain. Fiscal deficits are widening. Geopolitical tensions are rising. Central banks are diversifying away from the greenback.
At the same time, the supply side of the gold mining industry isn’t expanding fast enough to keep up with demand. Major discoveries are rare, and average mine lead times are long, averaging 15 years between discovery and production.
Some analysts, at JPMorgan and elsewhere, now see gold reaching $5,000 as soon as next year if real yields fall further and political risks increase. I believe we could see $7,000 gold by the end of President Trump’s second term as the amount of debt around the globe continues to accelerate.
As always, I recommend a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical bullion and 5% in high-quality gold mining stocks, mutual funds and/or ETFs. Remember to rebalance at least once a year.
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