Markets seem to be trusting the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and the US dollar is back to testing its lows. Expect US data to play a bigger role from here, especially since Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance during his Congressional testimony included some subtle dovish hints. Dollar downside risks persist
USD: Powell’s Bullet Dodged, At Least Partly
Geopolitical risk has continued to diminish for markets, as the Israeli-Iranian truce has held since yesterday morning. Markets will be assessing the stability of the ceasefire in the coming days, but are clearly biased towards playing the optimistic trade, judging by how quickly the oil premium has evaporated.
We believe that the negative impact of the reduced geopolitical risk on the dollar has largely played out. From here, further USD losses may need to be justified by US-specific factors: data, Fed, Trump’s spending bill and tariffs. Yesterday, the first of these two factors was in focus, and while a surprise drop in consumer confidence is unequivocally negative for the dollar, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony was a more nuanced event.
Powell reiterated caution on easing, and implicitly kept rejecting Trump’s pressure, but also seemed modestly more open to discussing the conditions for starting cuts. Markets were actively searching for any minor signs of a dovish tilt after Waller and Bowman’s calls for a July cut, and felt Powell’s wording was enough, judging by the positive reaction in Treasuries.
Is this negative for the dollar? We aren’t convinced. There is a sharply USD-negative scenario where the Fed turns more abruptly dovish and markets doubt Fed independence. But in that scenario, Treasuries would come under pressure.
Instead, if Powell’s communication allows only a moderate dovish repricing without signalling that he is bending to political pressure, the damage to the dollar can be limited. There is also a possibility that a slightly more dovish but firmly independent Fed ends up helping the dollar by helping Treasuries. Short-term rate spreads tell a small portion of the story in FX, while longer-dated yields are scrutinised much closer.
We’ll see the second part of Powell’s testimony today, while the data calendar only includes housing data for May. We could see some stabilisation in the dollar, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
EUR: Testing the Big Resistance
The EUR/USD rally stalled again in the 1.160-1.165 area and it is plausible markets may require a more compelling macro story (most likely from the US) rather than the mere unwinding of geopolitical risks for a break higher.
A lot of focus in Europe is on the ongoing NATO summit in the Netherlands, which Trump joined yesterday evening. Any signs that the US safety guarantees for European allies are faltering further, or becoming even more transactional than expected, can sour some sentiment in European markets. Especially after Spain’s refusal to meet the 5% defence spending target has curbed any enthusiasm for a coordinated spending boost.
That said, EUR/USD remains predominantly a dollar story, and the market’s blatant disliking of the greenback, confirmed by limited gains during the Middle East turmoil, means the upside potential remains intact.
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