ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Monetary easing is filtering through the lending channel more slowly, with borrowing growth among businesses and households showing signs of levelling off. Uncertainty in the economy seems to have...

A four-day week in US markets due to Independence Day will offer plenty to judge whether EUR/USD can attempt a move to 1.20 in the near term. Focus will be on the Senate vote on the Big Beautiful...

Big isn’t beautiful when it comes to government debt, but tariffs and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) help to plug the hole left by President Trump’s latest fiscal bill. The net effect...

Trying to work out when the Fed will cut US interest rates - and by how much - is somewhat preoccupying financial markets. Watch what ING's James Knightley thinks. Are You Thinking What We’re...

Yesterday’s US data was a mixed bag, failing to unequivocally endorse the recent speculation on Fed rate cuts. Today, focus will be on the PCE, personal spending and more Fedspeak. EUR/USD has its...

With the ceasefire between Iran and Israel appearing to hold, the oil market’s attention is shifting back to tariffs and other risks Energy – Focus Shifts From the Middle East to Tariffs Oil prices...

The US dollar's bearish march has continued after the Middle East crisis brought scattered, short-lived support. EUR/USD has broken 1.170 and is setting its sights on 1.20. The recent short-term rate...

We expect the US dollar to become more sensitive to data in the near term, as markets seek a catalyst to double down on recent dovish Fed speculation. Employment figures may be subject to closer...

Markets seem to be trusting the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and the US dollar is back to testing its lows. Expect US data to play a bigger role from here, especially since Fed Chair Powell's...

Oil prices are edging higher this morning following a two-day decline, as the market evaluates the easing tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices have fallen as the Iran-Israel ceasefire is reducing...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is not only coming under pressure from the President to cut interest rates, but from members of his own team. Nonetheless, with the economy still growing and adding jobs, plus...

Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, and markets had already started pricing out geopolitical risk yesterday as Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the US appeared measured in size. The US...

The eurozone composite PMI came in at 50.2 in June – similar to May – indicating a stagnating economy after a robust first quarter. Concerns about escalation in the Middle East add a new downside...

Since the US targeted Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, supply risks for energy markets have increased significantly amid uncertainty about how Iran will retaliate Moving Closer Towards...

The US dollar is trading higher this morning after the US strikes on Iran. But the moves still look quite small in FX, which suggests lingering reluctance to unwind strategic USD shorts, as well as...

The US dollar has lost some momentum as oil prices corrected slightly lower, and markets still struggle to gauge the probability of the US joining the Middle East conflict. EUR/USD may stabilise now...