ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The rain has arrived and nature is gearing up for winter. The birds are migrating, the squirrels are stockpiling, and London’s finance bros are back in their Patagonia gilets. So as the daylight...

Lisa Cook is challenging her dismissal in court, and markets are seemingly staying away from pricing in any substantial dovish shifts at the FOMC beyond what can be derived from data and...

Oil prices moved higher yesterday after the German Chancellor poured cold water on hopes for a meeting between Zelensky and PutinEnergy – Peace Deal Hopes Fade FurtherOil prices rallied after...

In the US, the steepener has become the consensus trade, as has setting long end shorts. Price action through Thursday went against that grain; lower yields and a flatter curve; with month-end...

Economic sentiment remains in line with muted growth for the eurozone, which is likely to be somewhat stronger than in the second quarter. Steady bank lending growth is also in line with that viewThis...

Wednesday saw no further progress in the administration’s removal of the Fed’s Lisa Cook. The FX environment remains choppy, but we note the continued low fixings in USD/CNY –...

The thing about the Lisa Cook affair is it’s laced with legal grey. We make the simple apolitical assumption, from a market’s perspective, that Ms Cook will be replaced. Tough to undo...

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Trump’s dismissal of Lisa Cook is not going to have a big short-term FX impact. The implications may only play out in the longer run, as the current...

French politics is injecting uncertainty into eurozone bond markets, but the spread widening remains more confined to French bonds for now. Long-end yields globally have felt supply and fiscal...

Oil prices came under pressure as US secondary tariffs on India come into effect, taking the total levy to 50%.Energy – Secondary tariffs against India come into forceOil prices were unable to...

Eurozone optimism has pushed the Germany 2-Year yield to the brink of pre-’Liberation Day’ levels. Just shy of 2%, the balance of risk is towards near-term lower yields again. US rates are...

Having enjoyed a brief session on Friday of unalloyed joy as Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September rate cut, financial markets may now face some uncertainty on political developments in France...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole provided a boost to most risk assets, including large parts of the commodities complex. Yet, uncertainty over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal...

Chair Powell could have been super balanced, or even hawkish. But he effectively chose to endorse the market discount for a rate-cutting phase ahead. It's had quite the reaction. Risk assets are up,...

The US dollar is drifting higher ahead of a key speech from Fed Chair Powell today. Driving that has been some slightly better business confidence data, questioning whether the Fed needs to cut in...

Chair Powell does not have to pretend to maintain a degree of hawkishness as the recent data in fact supports such a stance. The next FOMC is still a month away; plenty of time to pivot. Good...