ING Economic and Financial Analysis

A respectable jobs market in May with firm employment growth and stable unemployment, but the risks are skewed toward more weakness in coming months as trade uncertainty and concerns for consumer...

While markets look past the spat between Trump and Musk, attention is firmly on US jobs data. Softer expectations this week raise the stakes for a weak NFP print, which could pressure the Fed toward...

US Treasuries have stabilised. Global equity markets are performing well. But judging from the FX options market, investors are wary about another trade or bond flare-up in July. Today, the focus is...

In a social media post this morning, Trump said Xi Jinping is difficult to make a deal with, as markets await details on the scheduled call between the two leaders this week. There is some positive...

Central banks continued to buy gold in April, but at a slower pace given that prices are near record highs. Metals – Central Bank Gold Buying Slows in April Central banks added a net 12 tonnes of...

A strong drop in core inflation in May to 2.3% and headline to 1.9% serves as a clear sign that undershooting the inflation target is still a possibility for the ECB. Expect the ECB to lower the...

The US dollar is being hit by a combination of soft data (ISM manufacturing) and more bond market concerns. However, the risk premium is not far from the peaks seen in April, and soft data may not be...

The oil market surged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent hitting US$65.76/bbl at one stage, as USD weakness, rising geopolitical risks and possibly a supply hike from OPEC+ that fell short of...

A shift to a more confrontational stance on trade between the US and China, plus a focus on a potential US 'revenge tax' on foreign investors, are weighing on the US dollar. Softer jobs data this...

Oil prices are firmer this morning despite OPEC+ agreeing to another large supply hike Energy – OPEC+ Supply Increase In Line With Our Expectations OPEC+ agreed to another large supply hike over the...

Equity markets are back to where they were, and the US dollar is 0.5% softer than when a court ruled the majority of US tariffs illegal on Wednesday evening. An appeals court yesterday intervened in...

The US dollar has jumped in Asia on news that a US court has ruled the majority of President Trump's tariff hikes illegal. We also found the minutes of the 7 May FOMC meeting slightly hawkish and...

Oil prices are firmer this morning after a US court blocked President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs Energy – Sentiment Improves for Now Oil markets strengthened yesterday as sanction risks against...

The US dollar has had a lift from a rebound in consumer confidence and Trump striking a more conciliatory tone towards the EU. Now that EUR/USD has returned to the 1.130 anchor, the dollar may...

Oil is firmer this morning amid the prospect of further sanctions against Russia, overcoming yesterday’s downward price pressures Energy- Sanction Risks Grow Crude oil prices came under pressure...

Tariff drama left the US dollar weaker in April, and the recent short-lived Trump-EU spat is no exception. With market concerns on the US deficit still playing a role, the downside risks for the...