TSX gains on big banks strength
US Dollar is trading at 97.66. The US Dollar Index (DXY)remains range-bound, hovering just under its short-term moving averages, with the 15-day moving average at 98.20 and the 20-day moving average at 98.48.
Key Technical Observations
- Moving Averages Bearish Alignment: Price is trading below both the 15-day and 20-day moving averages, keeping the near-term bias cautious.
- Range-Bound Price Action (WA:ACT): The index has been oscillating between 97.50 support and 99.00 resistance, reflecting indecision in the broader trend.
- RSI at 45.79: Momentum remains weak, tilting bearish but not oversold, leaving room for further declines if support gives way.
- Failure to Break Higher: Recent attempts to reclaim 99.00 have been rejected, suggesting sellers are still in control around higher levels.
Macro (BCBA:BMAm) & Market Context
- Fed Policy Outlook: Expectations of a Fed policy pause or pivot have capped USD upside, weighing on DXY’s momentum.
- Treasury Yields & Risk Sentiment: Lower US yields and improved global risk appetite have pressured the dollar. Conversely, renewed risk-off conditions could revive support for DXY.
- Global Central Bank Divergence: With the ECB and BoE signalling cautious tightening, relative policy positioning will be key to whether DXY sustains above 97.50.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 98.50 (20-day moving average, near-term pivot)
- Next (LON:NXT) Resistance: 99.00–99.50 (swing highs and rejection zone)
- Immediate Support: 97.50 (range floor, key horizontal level)
- Breakdown Support: 96.50 (multi-month low)
Bias: Neutral / Bearish Tilt
The DXY is consolidating under moving averages with weak RSI momentum. Unless the index reclaims 98.50–99.00, the risk leans toward further downside with a possible retest of 97.50, and even 96.50 if sellers regain control.
Patience may be key in the current setup. A clean breakout above 99.00 would signal bullish strength and open the door for a move toward 100.00. However, a sustained drop below 97.50 would favour bearish continuation. Traders may prefer to wait for direction to emerge rather than chasing price in the current indecisive zone.
