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It’s unclear when the government will publish the third-quarter GDP report, but the latest numbers still suggest that moderate growth prevailed.
Although official government data updates remain suspended due to the shutdown, numbers from other sources continue to flow. Using the available updates suggests that US output rose at a 2.5% annualized pace in Q3, according to the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
If the current median nowcast is accurate, growth slowed from the strong 3.8% pace in Q2, based on the government’s latest official update (Sep. 25).
The current Q3 estimate should be read cautiously, given the lack of recent updates for numbers in the previous quarter. But reports from sources that continue to publish suggest that economic activity remained positive in October, which suggests that a growth bias prevails at the start of Q4:
Hiring at US companies rebounded in October: private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs, according to the ADP Employment Report.
“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
A hiring recovery last month is “not surprising,” Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk said. “‘Liberation day’ is getting further and further behind us,” he continued, referring to US tariffs announced in April. “The fog is lifting and we have more clarity on the trade front.”
US services sector economic activity picked up in October, rising to the strongest pace since February, based on the ISM Services Index. “The rebounds in both the Business Activity and New Orders indexes in October are positive signs, while the continued contraction in the Employment index shows a lack of confidence in the continued strength of the economy,” said Steve Miller, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.
US economic activity edged up in October, expanding at a moderate pace, based on the S&P Global US Composite PMI, a survey-based GDP proxy. Growth was driven by firmer activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, reports S&P Global.
