TSX slips after index extends retreat from all-time high
The USD/ZAR pair closed at 17.33, after an intraday high of 17.34 and a low of 17.31. Price remains under steady pressure as sellers dominate, with the pair holding close to its lowest levels in months.
Key Technical Observations
- Moving Averages Bearish: The 15-day moving average (17.39) and 20-day moving average (17.46) are both trending downward. Price is trading below these levels, confirming bearish momentum.
- Trend Structure: Since peaking above 19.60, the pair has been making consistent lower highs and lower lows, aligning with a well-established downtrend.
- RSI Weak: The RSI prints at 40.15, below neutral 50, signalling bearish bias without being oversold yet. This suggests room for further downside.
- Downside Momentum: Candles show consistent selling pressure, with rallies being capped quickly by resistance near moving averages.
Macro & Market Context
- Rand Strength: Commodity-linked currencies like the ZAR are benefiting from strong export flows and resilient emerging-market sentiment.
- U.S. Dollar Weakness: A broadly weak USD (with DXY holding near multi-month lows) is amplifying ZAR’s gains.
- Rate Differentials: With the SARB maintaining a hawkish stance, interest rate advantage continues to support ZAR demand.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 17.50 – cluster of moving averages and short-term rejection zone.
- Next Resistance: 18.00 – psychological barrier and prior swing high.
- Immediate Support: 17.20 – near-term floor.
- Breakdown Support: 17.00 – critical psychological level; a decisive break could accelerate losses.
Bias: Bearish
Momentum favours further downside as long as the pair stays below the 17.50–17.60 zone. A sustained breakdown under 17.20 could open the path toward 17.00.
This is a sell-on-rallies environment. Short entries near 17.50 with stops above 18.00 look favourable, targeting 17.20 and potentially 17.00. If 17.00 fails, further downside momentum could extend the decline into the 16.80–16.50 zone.