Weekly Forex Forecast: Big Moves Coming?

It’s looking like another great week for opportunities in the Forex markets, right? And I’m going to share with you my entry levels and exactly how I plan to trade this week. The focus is going to be on US dollar strength and also a bit of yen weakness. This is the catalyst for all of our trades this week. We’re also going to take a sneaky peek at Bitcoin and oil. So, strap in. Buckle up. Let’s do this.

So, if we’re looking at the US dollar, we need to look at the dollar index. And this is what we’re looking at right now. This is the daily chart. And as you can see, the dollar index is in an uptrend, right? So that is dollar strength.

Now, we’re looking to capitalize on this dollar strength. And I’ve pinpointed this 100 level because this is such a big psychological level for the dollar index. So, what I’m suggesting is we trade US dollar strength until we hit this $100 level because if I zoom out—let’s go to the weekly chart—you can see how important this level is. It’s proven to be support for months and now it’s proving to be very good resistance as well.

If we take a look at the weekly as well, you can see we had this nice bullish candle and we’ve got that room to move into. So, that’s the US dollar window of opportunity we have. As soon as we hit that $100 level, we’re going to pull back from US dollar strength.

So, bearing that in mind, let’s take a look at the US dollar majors I’m interested in. Let’s start at the top with AUD/USD. As you can see, we’re on the weekly chart and we were in an uptrend—and we still are really. We’re in this uptrend. But is this the start of potentially a head and shoulders pattern? There’s the shoulder, there’s the head, there’s the other shoulder. Head, shoulders, knees, and toes—I always have to sing that song when a head and shoulders pattern presents itself. I apologize.

Potentially a head and shoulders pattern. For it to really form, we need to see a break of these lows. Whatever happens here, the distance here, it will travel that distance again. That’s a textbook head and shoulders pattern. But that aside, we’re seeing a huge rejection at this last area of resistance.

So, I think we’ve got room to potentially just come back down to these lows and this 0.6450 psychological level. Now if we go to the day chart, we are not in a downtrend—that’s the problem we have here. It’s all about this level here for me. We were in a downtrend, price ranged, we’re back in an uptrend. Maybe we get some price action like this and then price breaks. As soon as we get a break of this low, I’m interested in selling Aussie dollar, US dollar.

If we dive a little bit deeper onto the H4, this is what we’re looking at. We’re looking at a downtrend, which is where we want to be. It’s just that the daily is not in a downtrend. So, what you might find is this daily support level—we might end up with price doing this a little bit during the week and then we get a break. I’m only interested in selling. So, if we get a break of this level, price action like this happens—retest—we can take price back down to those lows. Stops above these highs.

So, AUD/USD sells for US dollar strength.

Next, EUR/USD, Let’s start with the day chart. You can see it broke that last low. This is the important thing for me. We’re clearly in a downtrend. If it was in any doubt before, we’ve broken this low and this one. We’re just looking for the next piece of support—and that’s down to the 1.14 psychological level. The daily is looking good and we’ve got these bearish candles as well.

Just look how price respects our Smart River indicator—it’s such a good tool. Go check it out if you’re interested, link in the description. The daily is looking good. If we go down to the weekly, we’ve literally had a big bearish candle that broke these lows. That is a weekly structure break. So again, US dollar strength back down to here.

If we drop to the H4—the entry timeframe—we’re already in an H4 downtrend. You can clearly see it. I’ll be looking for a retrace back into this last low or even this level. At either area, if we get a nice bearish candle and the Smart River catches up, that’s dynamic resistance. If all of those things align, we can start selling Euro, US dollar—stops above the high, targets back down to those lows.

Next, NZD/USD. On the daily, we’re in a downtrend. There’s some debate whether we broke to the upside briefly, but ultimately we’re seeing sellers in control. My first target will be back down to the daily lows around 0.57 psychological level.

Looking at the weekly chart, we have a big bearish candle—more bearish than Yogi the Bear. It’s bounced off a level that was previous support and now becomes resistance. We like this setup. If we zoom out on the weekly, there’s potential to come back down to the 0.56 psychological level.

If we drop to H4, there’s room here. We’re in a downtrend. Even if price retraces, a bearish reaction gives us a sell opportunity.

Final US dollar pair—US dollar yen. With yen, it’s important to note it’s a flight-to-safety currency, linked with the performance of the indices. Looking at the NASDAQ daily chart, we might see a move down to fill the gap, which would mean yen strength temporarily. But once that fills, I’ll be looking for yen weakness and dollar strength again.

On the daily chart for USD/JPY, the movement will mirror the indices. Once the NASDAQ fills that gap, we’ll look for buys around the 156 psychological level. On the weekly, there’s nothing major stopping this move until that resistance area. Big bullish weekly candles, slightly overextended, but any pullback into value zones on the daily gives opportunity.

On the H4, we may have to wait for a break and retest to get confirmation before buying. Stops below swing lows, targets the last highs or higher.

Now, let’s look at the yen pairs.GBP/JPY—on the daily chart, we’re in an uptrend but have found a recent high. There’s enough bullish momentum to retest that 204 level, which is about 150 pips. On the weekly, we’re in an uptrend with a nice bullish rejection wick—potentially back up to previous highs.

On the H4, I need to see a structure break before buying. Once we get that break of structure, I’ll start buying with stops below the swing low, targets back to the highs.

The only other yen pair I like is CAD/JPY. On the daily, it’s a bit overextended, but we’re in a strong uptrend. A bounce from what was resistance and now support is a great setup. On the weekly, there’s room up to around 111. If we get a bullish candle near support, that’s our cue to buy—stops below, take profit at previous highs.

Now, oil. On the weekly chart, it’s bounced off major support with a strong bullish wick. Buyers are in control. On the daily, if we get a break of the highs and a pullback, that’s a great buy setup back to resistance.

Finally, Bitcoin. I’ve been bearish for a while and still am. On the weekly, we’ve broken key lows and are in a downtrend. Last week showed indecision but still bearish. There’s room back down to the 100 level. On the daily, selling pressure remains strong—we could drop to 104, if not 100.

So guys, that’s it for this week.