Trump slaps 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico
There are numerous ways to predict economic and market outcomes, each with its own set of pros and cons. One of the more recent arrivals in the realm of trying to divine the future is the rise of prediction markets — platforms where individuals can wager on the outcome of future events and track the estimates in real time. The future’s still uncertain and no one has a crystal ball, but monitoring the estimated probabilities for various macro events offers another source of analytics, if only to compare with the implied probabilities from the usual suspects.
On that basis, here’s the first installment for what will be a periodic review of wagers for several economic and financial expectations. The sources for this update: Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, one thing that hasn’t changed for predictions from any source: Caveat emptor! Note, too, that the predictions shown below reflect a moment in time (earlier today).
US recession in 2025?
What will the year-over-year US consumer inflation rate be in the upcoming June report?
Will the Fed change its target rate at the upcoming FOMC meeting (July 30)?
What will US GDP growth be in the upcoming Q2 report (July 30)?
Where is the US 10-year Treasury yield headed in 2025?
Will Fed Chairman Powell step down in 2025?
What will the US tariff rate on China be on Aug. 15?
What will the Fed funds rate be in September?
