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USD/CAD breaks out of descending channel following trade deal news. Correlation with bitcoin surges to 0.99, highlighting risk-on behaviour. Key resistance at 1.3947; break above targets 1.4027 and...
The mood music coming from the European Central Bank (ECB) sounds fairly dovish, with some even speculating over 50bp of rate cuts. Concerns over inflation seem to have largely evaporated, and...
Scott Bessent and President Trump have delivered two consecutive days of positive headlines for US assets and the US dollar – from de-escalations with China, to a less aggressive stance on the Fed,...
High-beta currencies have rallied overnight, perhaps indicating that the US will opt for a flat rate over country-specific tariffs, which could be seen as slightly more lenient. But it’s also been...
The US dollar started the week on the front foot thanks to some defensive positioning ahead of tomorrow’s tariff announcement. Barring data disappointment (JOLTS and ISM manufacturing), there is a...
The week started with another US data disappointment, as softer-than-expected retail sales added to worries about a deteriorating consumer picture. Today, geopolitical developments are in focus as...
The euro EUR/USD has surged after European leaders announced big spending plans for defence and infrastructure. This comes at a time when President Trump acknowledges that tariffs are causing a...
As markets assess the implications of the Zelenskyy-Trump clash on Friday, the focus today is whether US tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go ahead. The FX market is not pricing in 25% duties as a...
Trump said yesterday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are still on the table ahead of next Monday’s deadline. Markets remain reluctant to price that in for now, and some soft US consumer confidence...
The US dollar faces downside risks today as US payrolls should slow and annual benchmark revisions could be significant. That could more than offset some safe-haven flows on the back of souring China...
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