Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment.
A benign 0.2% MoM core PCE print today could be enough for the US dollar to start giving back some of this week’s gains, which in our calculations are a bit overdone. EUR/USD should make it back...
Trump’s change of tone on Ukrainian territory and suggestion to shoot down Russian planes violating NATO airspace have had no impact on European currencies, although they raise downside risks....
As the US dollar shed some post-Fed gains at the start of this week, the Canadian dollar again stood out as an underperformer. The worsening jobs market, trade uncertainty and possibility of more Bank...
Plenty of Fed speakers this week will clarify the FOMC’s policy views after Chair Powell’s cautious remarks last week. With the Dot Plot signalling two more cuts this year, we don’t...
We interpret yesterday’s Fed decision as a net negative for the US dollar, and think that some ’sell the fact’ and positioning readjustment have exacerbated the US dollar rally...
The combined effect of a hawkish ECB and US data (consensus core CPI and spike in jobless claims) has sent the EUR:USD short-term rate differential to the tightest in a year. Spot has only partly...
After a subdued PPI print yesterday, the chances of today’s US core CPI exceeding the consensus 0.3% MoM are lower. We expect firmer conviction on three Fed cuts by year-end after today’s...
Unofficial jobs reports (ADP, JOLTS, Challenger) have all pointed to a deterioration in line with rising Fed concerns. The focus for today’s jobs report will be split between the headline August...
US Dollar shorts have been trimmed as global long-dated bonds have faced pressure this week. But we don’t see this overshadowing the data and Fed drivers for the dollar, and the move may be...