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Francesco Pesole

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  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment.

Today’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska could be a turning point for the Ukraine conflict. But that might not deliver the kind of seismic impact on the US dollar that macroeconomic data has of...
US Secretary Bessent said the Fed should cut by 50bp in September, and that rates are 150-175bp above where they should be. Markets aren’t considering a 50bp move as an option, and we doubt they...
US core inflation accelerated to 0.3% MoM in July, but markets don’t think that is enough to prevent a September Fed cut. That paves the way to more US Dollar weakness, although some caution may...
We expect a 0.4% month-on-month core CPI print in the US today, above the 0.3% consensus. That should offer the US dollar support, but we don’t think that will prompt markets to seriously price out a...
We expect the FX market to remain predominantly driven by data, and continue to treat expectations about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine with caution ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. We expect...
The same day President Trump installed an (interim) dovish ally in the FOMC, the Bank of England struck a more hawkish tone, narrowly voting in favour of another 25bp rate cut. The US calendar is...
US President Donald Trump appears to be advancing efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine truce. Markets are pricing in cautious optimism: oil, dollar, and the Swiss franc all came under pressure. CHF...
President Trump hinted that Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and two others are leading the race for the next Fed Chair and might be announced soon after Governor Adriana Kugler’s early exit. We think the...
The US has announced new 'reciprocal' tariffs (Canada, Switzerland and New Zealand are notable targets) while keeping the base rate at 10%. The muted market impact signals lingering expectations of...
Despite two dissenting votes, the Fed delivered a broadly hawkish hold, with Chair Powell remaining firm on his inflation call and forcing markets to trim September cut bets. The US dollar’s rally...