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Francesco Pesole

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  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 2

We expect another leg lower in EUR/USD today, driven by an above-consensus 3.3% quarterly annualised US GDP, which should come in stark contrast with stagnant eurozone numbers. After that, we expect...
A US-EU deal is reportedly imminent and should follow the US-Japan 15% tariff blueprint. The ECB should anyway tread carefully and offer no new guidance, but comments about the euro’s strength can be...
We expect a hold by the ECB on Thursday, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength. Ultimately, Fed decisions will drive EUR/USD more than...
Markets’ defiant approach to tariff news will be tested in the coming days as the risk of no trade deals before the 1 August deadline rises. The consensus view is probably that the dollar can lose...
Retail sales and jobless claims were better than expected yesterday, offering more support for a hawkish rethink of Federal Reserve rate cuts. We expect the residual 14bp priced in for September to...
Yesterday’s US inflation failed to validate dovish bets on the Fed and triggered a bounce in the oversold US dollar. We see more room for hawkish repricing in the coming weeks, and accordingly,...
A fifth straight decline in initial jobless claims places even more emphasis on Tuesday’s CPI data to vindicate markets' residual bets on a September Fed cut. The consensus view has now emerged: a...
Trump's 50% tariff announcement on Brazil, a net importer from the US, appears linked to charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro, and is resulting in significant pressure on the BRL. But...
Today’s June Fed minutes will answer this question. Unless something remarkable emerges, the tariff story itself seems unable to significantly steer the US dollar for now, as markets retain a...
Yesterday’s US data (JOLTS and ISM manufacturing) were stronger than expected, but this provided only limited support for a US dollar still suffering from an asymmetrical negative bias. To watch...