Ambarella stock price target raised to $110 at Needham

Published 27/02/2025, 14:32
Ambarella stock price target raised to $110 at Needham

On Thursday, Needham analysts increased the price target for Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) shares to $110 from the previous target of $100, while maintaining a Buy rating. Currently trading at $75.81, with a market capitalization of $3.2 billion, the stock has shown strong momentum with a 44% gain over the past six months. The firm’s analysts cited Ambarella’s fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, which surpassed the midpoint of expectations, and provided an upbeat forecast for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 that exceeded market predictions. According to InvestingPro, 10 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period.

Ambarella’s financial outlook for fiscal year 2026 anticipates mid- to high-teen percentage revenue growth, with Needham’s projections aligning at around a 17% increase. While the company maintains a strong balance sheet with more cash than debt and a healthy current ratio of 2.84, InvestingPro data indicates the company is not currently profitable, with a return on equity of -27%. The analysts expect that over half of this incremental revenue growth will be driven by the company’s CV5 and CV7 product families. Additionally, the CV2 product line is projected to continue its growth trajectory.

Despite the positive momentum, management at Ambarella has factored in a conservative outlook for the second half of fiscal year 2026. This caution stems from uncertainties related to the impact of government policy decisions, particularly tariffs, which could affect the company’s performance.

Needham’s analysis also includes a forecast for Ambarella’s gross margins (GM) for fiscal year 2026, anticipating them to be near the high end of the company’s long-term target range of 59-62%. The firm’s commentary highlighted recent industry developments that point towards the implementation of efficient and open-sourced reasoning models at the edge, necessitating additional AI compute power. This trend is expected to lead to higher average selling prices (ASPs) for Ambarella’s products.

In other recent news, Ambarella reported strong financial results for Q4 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11, surpassing the forecasted -$0.02, and revenue of $84 million, exceeding expectations of $78.03 million. Rosenblatt Securities maintained a Buy rating on Ambarella, setting a price target of $100.00, and noted the company’s impressive revenue growth and successful transition to new Edge AI products. The firm’s analysts highlighted Ambarella’s potential in the AI Edge computing market, suggesting it as a significant growth area. KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated a Sector Weight rating for Ambarella, acknowledging the company’s strong performance but taking a neutral stance while awaiting further evidence of success from new technologies. Ambarella’s management expressed confidence in future growth, providing guidance for mid- to high-teens percentage revenue growth for fiscal year 2026. The company is cautious about potential impacts from North American tariffs on customer demand, reflecting a strategic approach to managing external risks. Ambarella continues to focus on expanding its presence in the automotive and IoT markets, leveraging recent product launches and innovations in AI technology.

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