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Investing.com - Jefferies maintained its Hold rating and $12.00 price target on American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) stock on Monday, while lowering earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The stock, currently trading at $13.15, is showing mixed signals according to InvestingPro data, with 15 analysts recently revising their earnings estimates downward.
The investment firm reduced its Q3 EPS forecast to ($0.35) from ($0.24) previously, compared to consensus estimates of ($0.27) and company guidance of ($0.10)-($0.60). The revised projection reflects revenues down 0.6% year-over-year on available seat miles (ASMs) up 2.4%, resulting in total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) down 2.9% year-over-year. This comes as American Airlines maintains a substantial revenue base of $54.25 billion over the last twelve months, with an EBITDA of $5.1 billion.
Jefferies cited lower unit revenues across multiple geographic segments, with domestic passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) now estimated at -4.8% (from -4.5%) and Latin America at -2.0% (from -1.5%). The firm also reduced its Atlantic PRASM forecast to -0.5% from +2.0%, as American Airlines’ capacity to Europe increases to +4.4% in Q3 schedules versus -1.6% flown in Q2.
The investment firm’s Q4 EPS estimate was lowered to $0.33 from $0.37, compared to consensus of $0.35, incorporating TRASM of -1.4%.
For the full year 2025, Jefferies now projects EPS of $0.35, down from $0.50 previously, positioning its estimate closer to the midpoint of American Airlines’ guidance range of ($0.20)-$0.80 and below the consensus estimate of $0.44. For deeper insights into AAL’s valuation and future prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access comprehensive analysis and additional ProTips in our detailed research report, with the next earnings announcement scheduled for October 16, 2025.
In other recent news, American Airlines reported its Q2 2025 earnings, exceeding earnings per share (EPS) expectations with $0.95 compared to the forecast of $0.78. The company achieved record revenue of $14.4 billion, slightly above projections. Despite the positive financial results, investor sentiment was cautious due to ongoing operational challenges and market uncertainties. Raymond James reiterated its Outperform rating on American Airlines, maintaining a price target of $14.00, driven by a positive demand trend and a favorable supply-demand outlook. The firm noted a history of conservative guidance among airlines, including American Airlines.
Meanwhile, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) began a three-day investigative hearing into the fatal collision between an American Airlines plane and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter near Reagan Washington National Airport, which resulted in 67 fatalities. The hearing aims to examine the incident’s critical aspects, including the air data systems of the Army helicopter and the Federal Aviation Administration’s oversight. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy criticized the FAA for not preventing the crash, highlighting previous near misses in the DC airspace. Additionally, a U.S. government watchdog has initiated an audit of the FAA’s oversight of the airspace around the airport following the incident.
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