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Investing.com - CLSA upgraded Ashok Leyland Ltd. (NSE:AL) from Hold to Outperform and raised its price target to INR136.00 from INR112.50, citing expectations of a commercial vehicle (CV) cycle reversal by the end of FY26.
The upgrade follows Ashok Leyland’s Q1 FY26 EBITDA margin of 11.1%, which aligned with consensus expectations and represented a 52 basis point year-over-year expansion. CLSA noted this improvement was driven by 152 basis points of gross margin expansion resulting from cost reduction initiatives, a richer CV mix, and higher non-CV revenue.
The research firm highlighted Ashok Leyland’s volume outperformance versus the industry in both medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV trucks) and light commercial vehicles (LCVs), attributing this to strong execution despite steel price inflation due to safeguard duty.
CLSA believes the commercial vehicle market is in the final stage of its downcycle, with a reversal expected by the end of FY26 driven by a softer base from last year, improving freight rates, anticipated interest rate cuts, and rising freight utilization amid improving demand.
The firm has increased its target EV/EBITDA multiple from 11x to 12x, incorporating an upcycle multiple versus its previous mid-cycle multiple, and projects 10% M&HCV truck volume growth for FY27 following an expected 2% decline in FY26.
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