Aspen Insurance price target lowered to $33 at Goldman Sachs

Investing.com - Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on Aspen Insurance Holdings (NYSE:AHL) stock to $33.00 from $36.00 on Monday, while maintaining a Neutral rating following the company’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report. The stock, currently trading at $28.74, has fallen over 9% in the past week, according to InvestingPro data, which shows the company trading at an attractive P/E ratio of 8.6x.

The firm reduced its earnings per share estimates by 4%, 5%, and 3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, citing weakening conditions in specialty insurance and reinsurance markets that affected premium growth and the underlying loss ratio during the quarter. InvestingPro analysis reveals 8 additional key insights about Aspen’s financial outlook, including important profitability and valuation metrics that could impact investor decisions.

Goldman Sachs decreased its net premium written growth estimates by 60 basis points to 7.1% for 2026 and by 40 basis points to 5.2% for 2027, primarily due to a roughly 1 percentage point reduction in insurance net premium written growth estimates for those years.

The firm increased its insurance and reinsurance underlying loss ratio estimates by approximately 60-70 basis points for 2026 and 2027, reflecting Aspen’s business mix shift toward long-tail lines and deteriorating pricing in both property and specialty segments, where peers have reported price decreases of 10-20% in property and 3-6% in specialty lines.

These negative factors were partially offset by improvements in Aspen’s expense ratio estimates and net investment income, with Goldman Sachs also adding $40 million of annual share buybacks into its model for 2026 and 2027 to account for potentially lower organic growth opportunities.

In other recent news, Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited has priced a $300 million offering of senior notes due in 2030, with an interest rate of 5.750%. The company plans to use the proceeds to repay outstanding debt. Additionally, Aspen Insurance has appointed John Welch as the Group Chief Underwriting Officer, effective August 1, 2025. Welch brings over 30 years of experience from companies like AXA XL and XL Catlin Group.

Analyst firms have initiated coverage on Aspen Insurance, with Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) assigning an Equal Weight rating and setting an earnings per share estimate of $3.60 for 2025. Citi analysts have given the stock a Buy rating with a $43 price target, indicating a positive outlook. Piper Sandler has rated the stock as Overweight with a $40 target, citing the company’s successful transformation and improved profitability. These developments reflect Aspen Insurance’s strategic initiatives and analyst perspectives on its future performance.

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