Barclays lowers Anglo American stock price target after restructuring

Published 10/06/2025, 16:06
Barclays lowers Anglo American stock price target after restructuring

On Tuesday, Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts revised their outlook on Anglo American (JO:AGLJ) Plc. (AAL:LN) (OTC:NGLOY), lowering the stock’s price target to £26.00 from £26.50. The analysts maintained an Overweight rating for the company. This adjustment follows the company’s recent restructuring efforts, which are expected to enhance its business quality and financial performance.

The restructuring is projected to result in significant improvements in Anglo American’s EBITDA margins and returns on capital employed (ROCE) over the 2026-2028 period. The revised EBITDA margin estimates are expected to rise by 15, 17, and 16 percentage points for the respective years, reaching 47%, 54%, and 55%. The ROCE estimates are also anticipated to increase by an average of 5 percentage points during the same period.

Despite these improvements, the absolute EBITDA estimates post-restructuring are expected to be lower by 21%, 23%, and 27% compared to pre-restructuring figures. However, the company’s capital expenditure is projected to decrease substantially by 43%, 42%, and 33% over the same timeframe, resulting in higher returns and reduced capital intensity.

Barclays analysts also noted adjustments in the company’s free cash flow (FCF) yields, which are expected to be influenced by the removal of steelmaking coal cash flows and a reduction in net debt by approximately $3-4 billion from asset sales. The FCF yields for 2026-2028 are anticipated to change by +2.5, +0.8, and -2.4 percentage points compared to pre-restructuring levels.

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