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On Monday, Bernstein SocGen Group adjusted its outlook on Brown Forman (NYSE:BFb) (NYSE:BF-B) shares, lowering the price target to $40 from the previous $53, while maintaining an Outperform rating. The revision follows Brown Forman’s fiscal 2025 results released last Thursday, which fell short of expectations in nearly all segments except for the Emerging market, leading to a 3.0% decline in organic net sales growth for the fourth quarter. The company’s full-year 2026 guidance anticipates a continued low single-digit percentage decrease in organic net sales and organic operating income.
The cost-saving measures introduced earlier in the year are expected to be counterbalanced by factors including a 50% reduction in the more profitable sale of used barrels. This outlook has resulted in a notable drop in stock value on the day of the announcement. Analyst Nadine Sarwat highlighted the stock’s current trading at 15.4 times the next twelve months plus one (NTM+1) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a valuation comparable to the lows experienced during the Great Financial Crisis.
Brown Forman’s valuation is now only a 5% premium over Diageo (LON:DGE)’s, marking an all-time low for the company. Despite the current valuation and the firm’s positive rating, Sarwat advises caution, suggesting that only long-term and bold investors should consider the stock at this time. She believes that in a normalized environment, Brown Forman has the potential to return to its mid-term growth algorithm, with mid-single-digit percentage net sales growth and high-single-digit percentage EBIT growth. For now, the recommendation is to wait for more clarity before investing.
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