Bernstein cuts Cognex stock price target to $38, maintains Outperform

Published 02/05/2025, 11:40
Bernstein cuts Cognex stock price target to $38, maintains Outperform

On Friday, Bernstein SocGen Group adjusted its financial outlook on Cognex (NASDAQ:CGNX) stock, reducing the price target to $38 from the previous $52 while still affirming an Outperform rating. The adjustment follows Cognex’s first-quarter earnings report, which displayed a 2.5% year-over-year revenue increase, further enhanced to 5% when excluding foreign exchange impacts, surpassing consensus expectations. According to InvestingPro data, Cognex’s revenue growth has maintained a 5-year CAGR of 5%, with the stock currently trading at a P/E ratio of 39.5x.

Cognex’s gross profit margin (GPM) slightly missed targets due to a shift in product mix, favoring logistics over electronics, combined with foreign exchange headwinds. However, this was counterbalanced by a reduction in selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A), which contributed to a 100% year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) increase from a previously low base. The company’s second-quarter guidance aligned with consensus projections, suggesting moderate revenue growth and stable margins.

The management team at Cognex reported a minimal impact from tariffs on orders and margins, quantifying a 50 basis points detriment to GPM but a neutral effect on EPS. With a strong current ratio of 3.62 and moderate debt levels, the company appears well-positioned to weather near-term challenges. Echoing sentiments from other Factory Automation (FA) companies and analysts, Cognex anticipates long-term benefits stemming from deglobalization trends. This outlook suggests a strategic positioning of the company to leverage shifts in global trade patterns, despite the current challenges presented by tariffs and foreign exchange rates.

In other recent news, Cognex Corporation reported its Q1 2025 earnings, which exceeded analyst expectations. The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16, surpassing the forecast of $0.13, and reported revenue of $216 million, slightly above the projected $214.86 million. Cognex also announced a CEO transition, with Matt Moschner set to take over from Rob Willett on June 27. The company has launched new AI-powered vision systems, including the Insight 8,900 smart camera, which is expected to enhance its product offerings. Cognex is projecting revenue between $235 million and $255 million for Q2 2025, with anticipated growth in the logistics sector. Additionally, the company returned $102 million to shareholders through stock buybacks in the first quarter. Upcoming strategic objectives will be further discussed at the Investor Day on June 10.

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