Bernstein raises Constellation Brands target to $260 on tariff clarity

Published 07/04/2025, 12:12
Bernstein raises Constellation Brands target to $260 on tariff clarity

On Monday, Bernstein analysts, led by Nadine Sarwat, increased the price target for Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) shares to $260 from the previous $230, while maintaining an Outperform rating. Currently trading at $173.86, the stock sits below analyst targets ranging from $165 to $300. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company appears undervalued based on its Fair Value model. The adjustment follows recent clarifications regarding tariffs on aluminum, which is a significant component in the company’s cost of goods sold (COGS).

The US Commerce Department published an amendment on April 2nd to the Aluminum Presidential Proclamation, adding imports of beer and empty aluminum cans to the list of products subject to a 25% tariff. The industry faced uncertainty over whether the tariff would apply to all beer, just canned beer, or solely to the aluminum used in cans. It was finally clarified late on Friday that the tariff only applies to the aluminum content of the beer can, and not the beer itself, as stated by Jeffrey Kessler, undersecretary at the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security. This news comes as Constellation maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 51.5% and has consistently raised its dividend for 10 consecutive years.

Bernstein’s analysis suggests that packaging represents approximately 43% of Constellation Brands’ COGS mix, with aluminum cans making up about 39% of the company’s beer packaging mix. The targeted tariff is estimated to pose only about a 200 basis points headwind to the beer gross margin. This impact could be nearly offset through modest incremental pricing and/or the year-over-year depreciation of the Mexican Peso.

Investors are now looking forward to Constellation Brands’ Fiscal Year 2025 results, which are set to be released after the market closes on April 9th. A conference call is scheduled for 10:30 am ET on April 10th. While the results are significant, the focus is expected to be on the implications of the tariff adjustments rather than the figures themselves. With analysts forecasting EPS of $13.56 for FY2025, investors can access deeper insights and additional ProTips through InvestingPro’s comprehensive research reports.

In other recent news, Constellation Brands is preparing to release its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, which is highly anticipated by investors. BofA Securities has maintained a Neutral stance on the company, with a consistent price target of $205, while adjusting the earnings per share (EPS) estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 to $2.36. On the other hand, Needham reduced its price target for Constellation Brands from $240 to $215, maintaining a Buy rating, citing challenges with growth trends and its core Hispanic consumer base. Evercore ISI also lowered its price target to $225, highlighting a decline in tracked channel volumes and the impact of external factors like adverse weather conditions.

TD Cowen has further adjusted its outlook, reducing the price target from $240 to $200, citing concerns over anticipated tariffs and a forecasted slowdown in beer consumption. The firm maintains a Hold rating on Constellation Brands, noting that management is expected to address these challenges in their upcoming guidance. Analysts from TD Cowen predict a potential 20% reduction in EPS for fiscal year 2026 due to the planned tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, Jefferies has raised its price target for Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH) from $40 to $44, maintaining a Buy rating, although the firm anticipates a challenging first quarter due to subdued demand and rising inflation expectations. These developments reflect the complex landscape both companies are navigating, with investors keenly observing the upcoming earnings reports and guidance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.