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Investing.com - Bernstein maintained its Market Perform rating and $26.00 price target on Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL), representing the lower end of analyst targets ranging from $26 to $43, despite strong quarterly performance and positive booking trends. According to InvestingPro data, the cruise operator, currently valued at $37.62 billion, is trading slightly below its Fair Value.
The cruise operator has delivered consistent beats on both net yield growth and costs throughout 2025, with third-quarter results continuing this pattern. With revenue reaching $26.23 billion and an impressive gross profit margin of 55%, Carnival reports 50% of its 2026 capacity is already booked at higher prices, and 2027 bookings have started positively.
Several potential catalysts remain on the horizon, including the possibility of capital returns and new long-term targets expected in early 2026. These factors contribute to a positive near-term outlook for the company.
Bernstein identified specific challenges for Carnival in 2026, including a 50 basis point headwind from a new loyalty scheme, 100 basis points of cost pressure from dry-docks, and an additional 50 basis point cost increase related to destinations. These headwinds coincide with only 80 basis points of capacity growth.
While Bernstein raised its 2026 EBITDA forecast by approximately 1% and increased EPS estimates by 6% due to lower interest and depreciation costs, the firm expects 2026 messaging will drive small downgrades to consensus EBITDA estimates and believes competitors with growing capacity are better positioned to capture demand strength. For deeper insights into Carnival’s financial health (rated GREAT by InvestingPro) and access to 15 additional analyst revisions, consider exploring the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, Carnival Corporation announced the pricing of a $1.25 billion private offering in 5.125% senior unsecured notes due in 2029. The company plans to use the proceeds, along with cash on hand, to redeem $2.0 billion of its 6.000% senior unsecured notes due the same year, aiming to reduce interest expenses. S&P Global Ratings has revised Carnival’s outlook to positive from stable, attributing this to strong bookings and improved financial metrics, while affirming a ’BB+’ rating for the new notes offering. UBS has maintained its Buy rating and a $33 price target on Carnival, citing robust demand and onboard spending. Truist Securities reiterated its Hold rating with a $31 target following a strong quarterly earnings report. Carnival’s adjusted EBITDA exceeded consensus expectations by 3%, and adjusted EPS surpassed forecasts by $0.11 per share. The company’s performance benefited from higher ticket revenue and lower costs in fuel, SG&A, and net interest categories.
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