Bernstein reiterates underperform rating on Maersk stock amid shipping woes

Published 19/06/2025, 14:54
Bernstein reiterates underperform rating on Maersk stock amid shipping woes

Investing.com - Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated its Underperform rating and DKK9,350.00 price target on AP Moller Maersk (COPENHAGN:MAERSKB) (OTC:AMKBY) on Thursday. The $28 billion market cap shipping giant, currently trading at $9.27, appears undervalued according to InvestingPro Fair Value analysis.

The research firm cited significant challenges in Maersk’s core container shipping business, noting that spot rates have declined approximately 40% year-to-date in 2025. While the Red Sea closure prevented a collapse in freight rates during 2024, the market is now facing the consequences as this factor lapses. Despite these headwinds, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains strong financial health with a 5.64% dividend yield and trades at attractive multiples with a P/E ratio of 4.03.

Bernstein indicated that although the second quarter may show acceptable performance as importers build volumes, the second half of 2025 appears set for year-over-year declines in volumes and a deteriorating supply-demand balance that will put additional pressure on rates. This aligns with InvestingPro forecasts showing a 10% revenue decline expected for FY2025. Get access to 12+ additional ProTips and comprehensive analysis with an InvestingPro subscription.

The firm warned that any lasting peace deal in the Middle East that restores the Red Sea/Suez route between Asia and Europe would further pressure Maersk’s business. Over the medium term, the high and growing industry-wide container ship orderbook suggests an ongoing challenged rate environment in this "commoditized, price-taking sector."

Bernstein also criticized Maersk’s integrator strategy as "flawed," stating it has failed to deliver promised revenue synergies for seven years despite the company’s continued pursuit of this approach.

In other recent news, AP Moller Maersk’s financial outlook has seen notable revisions from Citi analysts. Following the release of the company’s first-quarter 2025 results, Citi increased the price target for AP Moller Maersk to DKK 13,591.00, up from DKK 11,093.00, while maintaining a Neutral rating. The analysts have raised their 2025 EBIT estimate significantly from $1,853 million to $2,417 million, driven by improvements in the Ocean segment. This adjustment aligns with recent rises in CCFI freight rates, particularly on Transpacific routes. Additionally, Citi has revised the company’s adjusted EBITDA projections from $7,666 million to $8,252 million, reflecting a more favorable market valuation. In an earlier update, Citi analyst Arthur Truslove upgraded the stock rating from Sell to Neutral, with a price target increase to DKK 11,093.00 from DKK 9,500.00. Truslove noted a substantial shift in the company’s financials, highlighting a transition from a $12.5 billion debt to a $6.4 billion net cash position. Despite expectations of EBIT losses in the Ocean division, Truslove acknowledged the industry’s consolidation and potential adaptability to market challenges.

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