Bernstein retains Carnival stock Market Perform, $26 target

Published 24/03/2025, 13:12
Bernstein retains Carnival stock Market Perform, $26 target

On Monday, Bernstein analysts maintained their Market Perform rating and $26.00 price target for Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) shares. According to InvestingPro data, analysts’ targets for CCL range from $14 to $34, with the stock currently trading at $20.94. The company’s overall financial health score is rated as "GREAT" by InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis. The firm’s analyst, Richard J. Clarke, provided insights on the company’s performance, aligning with their expectations of the cruise industry’s momentum. Carnival’s first quarter showcased a significant EBITDA beat due to robust demand, which was, however, countered by an increased cost guidance of 3.8% year-over-year. InvestingPro data reveals that Carnival’s EBITDA stands at $6.37 billion for the last twelve months, with the company maintaining a healthy gross profit margin of 54%. This rise in costs is expected to dampen the positive impact of the demand strength on the company’s bottom line.

Clarke’s analysis highlighted that while the cruise industry appears oversold and shows no signs of demand erosion, implying potential upside to Carnival’s current share price, there are still execution risks and slower EBITDA growth compared to its peers. He pointed out that Carnival lacks new hardware, which contributes to its lower growth rates. Despite these challenges, the analyst acknowledged the company’s impressive $165 million EBITDA outperformance in the first quarter.

The assessment suggests that while there might be room for Carnival’s stock price to rise, the analyst believes that Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) presents a more attractive investment opportunity, with an anticipated upside of 36% compared to Carnival’s 23%. Consequently, Bernstein continues to prefer RCL over Carnival based on these relative prospects.

Clarke’s comments reflect a balanced view of Carnival’s current position in the market. He recognizes the potential for stock price improvement following the recent sell-off but maintains a cautious stance due to the comparative advantages seen in other industry players. The firm’s reiteration of the Market Perform rating and price target indicates a neutral outlook on Carnival’s stock for the time being. InvestingPro subscribers can access additional insights, including 6 key ProTips and a comprehensive analysis of Carnival’s financial health, valuation metrics, and growth prospects in the exclusive Pro Research Report, available for over 1,400 top US stocks.

In other recent news, Carnival Corporation has reported a strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing earnings expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13 compared to a forecast of $0.02. The company’s revenue reached $5.81 billion, exceeding the anticipated $5.75 billion. Carnival’s net income exceeded its December guidance by $170 million, marking significant improvements in key financial metrics. Following these results, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities raised Carnival’s stock price target to $33 from $32, maintaining an Outperform rating, while Stifel increased the target to $31 from $30, keeping a Buy rating.

Carnival’s first-quarter yield outperformed guidance significantly, coming in at 7.35% compared to the projected 4.6%. This strong performance has been carried over to the revised full-year yield guidance, now standing at 4.7%, up from the initial 4.2%. The company’s EBITDA for the first quarter was reported at $1.21 billion, exceeding the guidance of $1.04 billion by $165 million. Carnival has also raised its full-year guidance by $185 million, indicating confidence in its future performance.

Despite some headwinds from foreign exchange and fuel costs, analysts at Mizuho believe Carnival’s earnings beat is impressive, attributing the difference to rounding and conservatism, among other factors. Stifel analysts noted the current investor uncertainty surrounding cruise stocks but observed strong booking and onboard revenue reports, suggesting no substantial decline in cruise demand. Carnival’s stock is trading at a discount compared to its historical average trading multiple, which analysts consider an attractive risk-reward balance.

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