Bernstein sees Bitcoin resilience amid tariff woes

Published 08/04/2025, 16:52
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On Tuesday, Bernstein analysts highlighted Bitcoin's notable stability in the face of current economic turbulence and the potential impacts of tariffs on cryptocurrency mining operations. For investors seeking deeper insights into crypto-related stocks, InvestingPro offers comprehensive analysis of over 1,400 companies, including detailed Pro Research Reports that transform complex market data into actionable intelligence. The analysts observed that despite historical trends where Bitcoin has experienced significant drops during crisis periods, such as during the Covid pandemic or interest rate shocks, the current price decline of 26% indicates a more resilient demand from capital sources. They noted that although tariffs are affecting miners due to a supply chain heavily reliant on China, U.S.-based alternatives are available, and advancements in AI technology could offer miners new opportunities for growth and diversification.

The resilience of Bitcoin was contrasted with its typical behavior during global crises, where it often shows a higher correlation with tech stocks rather than acting as a hedge similar to gold. However, Bernstein analysts believe that Bitcoin serves as the most accessible and liquid risk market when equity markets are not operational, often acting as a leading indicator for risk assessment during off-market periods. Despite its volatility, which is approximately 2.5 times that of gold, they view Bitcoin as a potential long-term 'store of value' asset, akin to a more volatile and liquid version of gold, with a market value nearing $2 trillion compared to gold's over $20 trillion.

The report also discussed the current landscape of the Bitcoin mining supply chain, which has been historically dominated by China with major companies like Bitmain and MicroBT leading the industry. U.S.-based miners such as CLSK, MARA, RIOT, and IREN have been sourcing their equipment from these Chinese firms. Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, large-scale miners have been able to expand their hash rate significantly throughout CY24, with growth rates between 100-500%, which could potentially allow them to increase their market share.

In related industry news, COIN (Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN)) is experiencing a favorable shift in the U.S. regulatory landscape, with lawsuits against its staking offerings being dropped in three states, and plans to launch futures on May 18. HOOD (Robinhood) disclosed its trading volumes for March 2025, showing a decrease in equity, options, and crypto trading volumes compared to February 2025. Meanwhile, MSTR (MicroStrategy) reported acquiring approximately 80,715 BTC for around $7.66 billion in Q1 2025, bringing its total holdings to 528,185 Bitcoin, acquired at an average price of approximately $67,458 per Bitcoin. MicroStrategy is currently facing about $5.91 billion in unrealized losses on its digital asset holdings. Want to stay ahead of market movements and make informed investment decisions? InvestingPro provides real-time analysis and Fair Value estimates for over 1,400 stocks, helping investors identify opportunities in volatile markets.

In other recent news, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) has been the focus of several analyst updates and product announcements. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James maintained its Market Perform rating on Robinhood, highlighting the company's strong recent performance in user growth and trading volumes, yet expressing caution regarding its current valuation. Meanwhile, Needham adjusted its price target for Robinhood to $62 from $70, citing a decline in cryptocurrency trading volumes and broader economic challenges, although they maintained a Buy rating due to new revenue streams. JMP analysts reiterated a Market Outperform rating with a $77 price target, praising Robinhood's strategic initiatives in digital wealth management and banking as significant steps toward long-term growth.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods also maintained a Market Perform rating with a $60 price target, noting that Robinhood's new product offerings like robo-advisory services align with previous expectations and aim to close the gap with larger competitors. Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed an Overweight rating and a $62 price target, emphasizing Robinhood's introduction of new premium services, including AI-powered tools and banking solutions, which are expected to enhance its Gold subscription growth. These developments reflect Robinhood's ongoing efforts to expand its financial services and capture a larger market share. The company's recent initiatives underscore its commitment to democratizing finance and providing high-quality services to a broad audience.

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