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On Tuesday, Bernstein SocGen Group initiated coverage on Traton SE (ETR:8TRA:GR) (OTC: TRATF) with a Market Perform rating and a price target of EUR36.00. The firm believes that the current market valuation of Traton does not reflect its solid fundamentals but is instead influenced by low liquidity. Traton, which is majority-owned by Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p) at 87%, is seen as a special case within the industry.
Bernstein highlighted that Traton’s financial metrics, including free cash flow conversion and margins, surpass those of its competitor Daimler (OTC:MBGAF). Analysts at the firm anticipate that Volkswagen’s commitment to reduce its stake in Traton to 75% in the medium term will serve as a significant catalyst for a revaluation of the company’s multiples.
Traton’s Scania brand was identified as a particularly strong asset, achieving a 14% margin in 2024, which stands on par with the dominant US player Paccar (NASDAQ:PCAR) and above that of Volvo (OTC:VLVLY). Bernstein pointed out that margin improvements are expected to focus on Traton’s underperforming US operations.
The firm also noted Traton’s advantageous exposure mix in the current macroeconomic environment. With less than 15% exposure to the US market and over 50% in Europe, Traton is well-positioned to benefit from any potential increase in industrial spending. Additionally, Traton is recognized as the market leader in Brazil and Latin America, regions where the markets are currently relatively stronger.
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