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On Tuesday, BMO Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR:CN) (NYSE: CNR), reducing the price target to Cdn$175.00 from Cdn$178.00, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The revision comes as BMO Capital's analysts reassess earnings forecasts for the rail sector in anticipation of the upcoming reporting season.
The change in the price target for Canadian National Railway reflects a tempered view of the company's performance, as recent results did not meet the expectations for a strong year-end. The analysts noted that Canadian National Railway has consistently fallen short of its volume projections for the past two years, citing labor work stoppages and weaker-than-expected demand among the causes for the shortfall.
The analysts expressed caution regarding Canadian National Railway's guidance, pointing out that after adjusting guidance downward twice and likely missing its modest single-digit EPS growth target for 2024, the company might adopt a more conservative stance for the start of 2025.
Despite projecting approximately 11% EPS growth for the next year and considering this target reasonable based on easy comparisons in both revenue and costs, BMO Capital suggests that Canadian National Railway could still choose to be conservative in its early 2025 guidance.
In their statement, BMO Capital analysts highlighted the factors impacting the rail company's performance, including significant volume diversions and softer demand. The revised target price to Cdn$175 from Cdn$178 is a reflection of the reduced earnings forecast for Canadian National Railway. The analysts remain optimistic about the company's growth prospects but acknowledge the challenges it faces in the current environment.
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