BMO Capital downgrades UPS stock rating to Market Perform on elusive demand recovery

Published 19/09/2025, 08:18
BMO Capital downgrades UPS stock rating to Market Perform on elusive demand recovery

Investing.com - BMO Capital downgraded UPS (NYSE:UPS) from Outperform to Market Perform on Friday, while lowering its price target to $96.00 from $125.00. The $72 billion logistics giant, which has seen its shares decline by 25% over the past six months according to InvestingPro data, currently trades near its 52-week low.

The rating change comes as BMO Capital cited an "elusive" recovery in demand, particularly in the business-to-business (B2B) segment, which represents a crucial market for the shipping giant. Despite these challenges, UPS maintains a robust 7.71% dividend yield and has raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years.

The firm noted that macroeconomic challenges have been "further heightened by shifting U.S. trade policies," specifically mentioning the ending of de minimis exemptions, which could impact cross-border shipments.

While UPS continues efforts to realign its U.S. domestic network toward small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and away from lower-margin business-to-consumer (B2C) operations, BMO Capital observed that cost savings from these initiatives are materializing "more gradually" than anticipated.

The firm also highlighted that UPS faces challenges with network density as it insources its Surepost service, prompting BMO Capital to lower its financial estimates for the company alongside the downgrade.

In other recent news, United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has terminated its planned acquisition of Estafeta due to unmet closing conditions, as disclosed in a company statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The decision to end the acquisition plan was made without additional details on the specific conditions or future intentions. In terms of financial performance, UPS reported adjusted second-quarter earnings per share of $1.55, slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.56. Following these results, UPS management withdrew its guidance for 2025, citing market uncertainty.

Analysts have responded to these developments with mixed updates. UBS has maintained its Buy rating on UPS, setting a price target of $118, due to the company’s cost-cutting progress and strategic adjustments to offset reduced volumes from Amazon. Meanwhile, Stifel has lowered its price target to $120 from $124, maintaining a Buy rating despite the mixed Q2 results. Additionally, VerifyMe’s subsidiary, PeriShip Global, LLC, has signed significant agreements with UPS, including a UPS Digital Channel Program Agreement and a UPS Partner API Access Agreement, which could impact future logistics operations. These recent developments reflect ongoing strategic adjustments and market responses affecting UPS.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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