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On Wednesday, BMO Capital Markets revised its price target for Paycom Software (ETR:SOWGn) (NYSE:NYSE:PAYC), reducing it to $225 from the previous $260, while retaining a Market Perform rating. According to InvestingPro analysis, Paycom currently appears undervalued, with impressive gross profit margins of 85.6% and a favorable PEG ratio of 0.58, suggesting attractive growth potential relative to its current valuation. The adjustment follows a period of reflection on the company's performance and future prospects.
Daniel Jester of BMO Capital noted that Paycom's shares have seen one of the most significant pullbacks within the human capital management (HCM) and payroll sector.
This comes as investors have reshaped their expectations following management's mid-December remarks about the company's outlook. Despite the pullback, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a strong financial health score of "GREAT" and achieved revenue growth of 11.9% over the last twelve months. According to Jester, the investment community is now anticipating more conservative revenue guidance for 2025 than what current consensus estimates suggest.
In 2024, Paycom focused on strategic investments to strengthen its competitive edge against both established public cloud software as a service (SaaS) providers and new private market entrants. Despite these efforts, BMO anticipates that Paycom will report slower growth excluding float revenue compared to its peers in the short term. Analysts are looking for signs of sustained progress throughout 2025.
BMO has also adjusted its revenue estimate for Paycom in 2025 to approximately $2.02 billion, equating to an 8% year-over-year increase. This forecast suggests a recurring growth rate, excluding float, of around 9.5%, a slight dip from the roughly 10% seen in 2024. On a positive note, BMO observed that Paycom appears to have adopted a more focused approach to net headcount in the fourth quarter. Additionally, with fewer anticipated rate cuts, concerns regarding margin declines have eased. Consequently, BMO predicts margins to remain relatively stable year-over-year into 2025.
The revised price target of $225 reflects both the anticipated slower growth rate in 2025 and a notable decrease in comparative multiples since the last assessment by BMO Capital. For deeper insights into Paycom's valuation and growth prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access comprehensive analysis including 12 additional ProTips and detailed financial metrics in the Pro Research Report, helping investors make more informed decisions about this $11.5 billion market cap company.
In other recent news, Paycom Software has been the subject of several analyst actions, following strong financial performance and strategic growth. TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on Paycom, but revised the stock price target from $248 to $218, citing a more conservative outlook based on the company's recent guidance. The firm also noted a recalibration of expectations excluding float revenue, which is income generated from holding client funds before they are paid out.
Paycom reported an 11% year-over-year increase in third-quarter revenue, reaching $452 million, largely attributed to its automation initiatives. Additionally, the company's EBITDA showed stronger than expected results, despite adopting a cautious stance for the fourth quarter due to unpredictable bonus runs and interest rate fluctuations.
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