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On Thursday, BMO Capital Markets maintained its Outperform rating on Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) shares, with a steadfast price target of $282.00. This aligns with the broader analyst sentiment, as revealed by InvestingPro data showing analyst targets ranging from $183 to $320, with 13 analysts recently revising their earnings expectations upward for the upcoming period. The firm’s analyst, Michael Zaremski, provided insights into the current trends affecting repair shops and how these trends influence Progressive’s near-term organic growth estimates. Zaremski observed a continued negative frequency trend in repair shops and has adjusted the near-term (NTM) organic growth estimate for Progressive down by approximately 20% to 9.2%. Despite these adjustments, Progressive maintains strong financial fundamentals, with a 21.36% revenue growth in the last twelve months and an impressive YTD return of 16.25%.
The revision comes after February’s organic growth results, which were seasonally strong, fell short of expectations by about 50 basis points (bps). This was despite management’s previous statements confirming that the late winter season, often boosted by tax refunds, would retain its positive growth trend. In giving management the benefit of the doubt, Zaremski anticipates a slight recovery, with a month-over-month increase of 1.1% in March, which would be 20bps better than the typical March deceleration of around 10bps month-over-month.
The lower organic growth baseline year-to-date (YTD) led to a reduction in the next twelve months’ growth trajectory by roughly 2 percentage points. This adjustment brings the forecasted organic growth for the fiscal years 2025/2024 down to 9.2%, which Zaremski expects will be about 1 percentage point below the consensus. The consensus currently stands at 11% but is likely to decrease to around 10% following the day’s earnings per share (EPS) report. For deeper insights into Progressive’s financial health and growth potential, including exclusive ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics, visit InvestingPro, where you’ll find detailed analysis in our Pro Research Report, available for over 1,400 top US stocks.
In other recent news, The Progressive Corporation reported a 17% increase in net premiums written for February 2025, reaching $6.684 billion, and a net income rise of 26% to $928 million. Despite these gains, the company faced a $110 million pretax net realized loss on securities, contrasting with an $80 million gain the previous year. Analysts had mixed reactions to these results, with Oppenheimer highlighting strong growth in policies-in-force and a better-than-expected core loss ratio. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods increased Progressive’s stock price target to $300, citing earnings outperformance and adjustments in EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026. Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight rating with a $315 price target, emphasizing Progressive’s defensive strengths in the current economic climate. Additionally, Progressive appointed Carl G. Joyce as the new Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, succeeding Mariann Wojtkun Marshall. This executive change is part of Progressive’s ongoing management restructuring and is expected to uphold the company’s commitment to financial accuracy. Investors remain attentive to how these developments will impact Progressive’s future performance and valuation.
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