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On Friday, shares of Yara International ASA (YAR:NO) (OTC: OTC:YARIY) observed a change in their stock rating as BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) Exane analyst Laurent Favre upgraded the company's rating from Underperform to Neutral. Accompanying this upgrade, the price target was also increased from NOK300.00 to NOK305.00. According to InvestingPro data, Yara's stock is currently trading near its Fair Value, with a P/E ratio of 533x and a market capitalization of $7.46 billion.
The upgrade by BNP Paribas Exane was based on the observation that agricultural fundamentals have slightly improved. However, the analyst noted that the uncertainty surrounding blue ammonia could temper the stock's performance in the short term. Favre pointed out that with Yara International (OL:YAR)'s stock trading around its 5-year average EBITDA multiples, the potential for further downside appeared limited, prompting the shift to a Neutral stance. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains a 'Fair' overall financial health score, with particularly strong ratings in profitability and cash flow metrics.
The analyst also mentioned that recent positive developments in agricultural markets, including an uptick in crop prices and nitrogen fertilizer spreads since the beginning of the year, led to revised estimates for Yara. The new EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set at $2,093 million and $2,173 million, respectively, which are 3% below the Bloomberg consensus.
Furthermore, BNP Paribas Exane's free cash flow (FCF) estimates for Yara stand at $183 million for 2025 and $562 million for 2026, resulting in a free cash flow yield of 3% and 8%. It is important to note that these estimates do not take into account a potential increase in capital expenditures for the company's U.S. blue ammonia projects, which are expected to reach final investment decision for up to two projects in the first half of 2026.
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