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On Friday, BofA Securities adjusted its outlook on Neurocrine (NASDAQ:NBIX) Biosciences stock, reducing the price target to $179 from $184, while preserving a Buy rating on the shares. Currently trading at $150.51, the company maintains a GREAT financial health score according to InvestingPro analysis, with particularly strong marks in profitability and cash flow management. The adjustment comes after the company reported its full-year 2024 Ingrezza revenues, which, at $2.31 billion, represented a 26% year-over-year increase but fell slightly short of both BofA’s and consensus estimates of $2.316 billion and $2.32 billion, respectively.
Neurocrine Biosciences provided guidance for fiscal year 2025, projecting sales in the range of $2.5 to $2.6 billion. This forecast indicates a 10% growth at the midpoint but is below the expectations of BofA and consensus, which were $2.69 billion and $2.66 billion, respectively. The company cited increased utilization management from payors in 2024 that is expected to persist into 2025, as well as heightened competitive pressure from Austedo XR as factors impacting the outlook.
The company remains optimistic about the growth potential in the tardive dyskinesia (TD) market, noting that only about 10% of patients are currently being treated with a VMAT2 inhibitor. This optimism appears well-founded, as the company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth of 25.7% over the last twelve months. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Neurocrine Biosciences initiated a salesforce expansion, anticipating this would begin to positively impact sales in the second half of 2025.
BofA Securities underscored the importance of first-quarter sales figures in providing additional clarity for what to expect in 2025. The firm also expressed intentions to consult with key opinion leaders to gain a deeper understanding of current usage and payor dynamics. Despite adopting a more conservative stance and lowering the fiscal year 2025 Ingrezza sales estimate to $2.58 billion, BofA Securities reaffirmed a positive long-term outlook for Neurocrine Biosciences. The firm highlighted the sustained healthy growth of Ingrezza, which is entering its eighth year on the market, as a basis for maintaining the Buy rating and setting the new price objective. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with 14 additional key insights available to subscribers, including detailed valuation metrics and growth indicators. Access the comprehensive Pro Research Report for a deep dive into what really matters about NBIX’s financial performance and future prospects.
In other recent news, Neurocrine Biosciences has been the subject of multiple analyst notes. Stifel maintained its price target for the company at $166.00, expressing positivity following Neurocrine’s announcement of a revised partnership with Takeda on the AMPA program. The deal gives Neurocrine full worldwide development and commercialization rights for the drug osavampator/NBI-845, except in Japan. Oppenheimer also reiterated its Outperform rating on Neurocrine Biosciences with a steady price target of $192.00, highlighting the recent FDA approval of Crenessity for the treatment of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH). Piper Sandler expressed continued confidence in Neurocrine Biosciences, maintaining an Overweight stock rating and a price target of $160.00.
Neurocrine Biosciences also sponsored a supplement in The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism (JCEM) focusing on classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), a rare genetic condition. The supplement discusses the challenges faced by individuals with classic CAH and advances in treatment, including CRENESSITY™ (crinecerfont), an oral medication developed by Neurocrine Biosciences.
Neurocrine Biosciences has also shared insights on the challenges of treating classic CAH with traditional glucocorticoids (GCs) and the promise of new non-GC therapies. The narrative review, recently published in Expert Review of Endocrinology & Metabolism, discusses how novel treatments could enable lower, more physiologic dosing of GCs, potentially reducing the risk of long-term complications associated with high-dose GC treatments.
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