Chip stocks fall with Nvidia after data center rev disappointment
On Monday, BofA Securities updated their financial outlook for Nokia OYJ (HE:NOKIA:FH) (NYSE: NOK), with analyst Didier Scemama increasing the price target to EUR 4.91 from the previous EUR 4.68 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The company, currently valued at $28.16 billion, has shown strong momentum with a 38% return over the past year and maintains a "GOOD" financial health rating according to InvestingPro analysis. This adjustment comes after Nokia’s recent completion of their acquisition of US-based Infinera (NASDAQ:INFN), a manufacturer of optical networking equipment, on February 28.
The acquisition is expected to contribute positively to Nokia’s financials, prompting BofA Securities to revise their revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the years 2025 to 2027. The firm now projects Nokia’s revenue to be EUR 20.8 billion in 2025, a 6.8% increase year over year, followed by EUR 22.0 billion in 2026, up 5.8% year over year, and a slight decrease to EUR 21.9 billion in 2027. This growth outlook builds upon Nokia’s current revenue base of $19.91 billion and diluted EPS of $0.32 for the last twelve months.
In addition to these revenue adjustments, BofA Securities has also increased their operating expenses (OPEX) assumptions for Nokia by 6-7%. The analysis suggests only modest cost synergies may be realized due to the limited customer base overlap between Infinera and Nokia.
The price target hike reflects an increase in the enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple for Nokia’s Network Infrastructure division from 8.0x to 8.6x. BofA Securities believes that Nokia’s strengthened position in the Optical Networking sector justifies this change. They estimate that at the new price target, Nokia would trade at an EV/EBIT multiple of 10.6x for the fiscal year 2025, which is at the higher end of its 5-year range of 5.6x to 11.2x.
The firm reiterated its Neutral rating, indicating a balanced risk/reward profile for Nokia shares. The expected growth in Fixed Networks and Datacenter markets is seen as a positive development, while potential downside risks in the Mobile segment are also taken into consideration.
In other recent news, Nokia has received unconditional approval from the European Union Commission for its $2.3 billion acquisition of Infinera, a U.S.-based optical semiconductors and networking equipment maker. This approval marks a significant step in Nokia’s expansion within the optical networking market, where it aims to become the second largest vendor. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has slightly adjusted its price target for Nokia to $6.30, maintaining an Overweight rating. The analysis highlighted expected growth in Nokia’s Network Infrastructure segment, despite a slight reduction in earnings estimates due to increased investment.
Additionally, Nokia is undergoing a leadership change, with CEO Pekka Lundmark set to resign and Justin Hotard taking over. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James has affirmed an Outperform rating on Nokia shares, reflecting investor confidence in the transition. In legal developments, Nokia secured an injunction against Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) in a German court over a streaming patent infringement. The ruling requires Amazon to halt its streaming services in Germany, pending Nokia’s deposit. Nokia’s strategic focus includes expanding its non-telecommunications business and capitalizing on opportunities in the public sector.
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