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UBS has reiterated its Buy rating for BSE Limited (BSE:IN) with a price target of INR2,633.00. The firm conducted scenario analysis to evaluate potential impacts from a shift in options expiry days for the exchange.
The analysis examines how changing expiry schedules between BSE and NSE could affect trading volumes. Currently, BSE receives three working days while NSE gets two, but a reversal could impact 10-15% of BSE’s volumes, according to UBS.
UBS maintains a base case projection that BSE will achieve Rs120 billion options premium average daily turnover, representing a 21% market share of India’s option premium turnover in FY26. This compares to BSE’s 21.6% market share in May 2025 and 22% market share through June 16, 2025.
The firm calculates that a 10% drop in volumes for BSE could impact profitability by 5-6%, reduce market share by 210 basis points, and affect UBS’s valuation by 8%. T-2 expiry contributions currently represent approximately 15% of BSE’s volumes, while T-1 expiry day contributions are around 20-21%.
UBS notes that while a change in expiry scheduling could mathematically impact 15% of volumes due to BSE losing one trading day, the exchange could potentially gain volumes on non-expiry days, which would partially offset losses from expiry day changes.
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