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On Thursday, Canaccord Genuity began coverage on Hipages Group Holdings Ltd (HPG:AU) with a positive outlook, assigning a Buy rating and a price target of AUD1.50. The firm’s analysts highlighted the company’s successful transition to a more efficient business model, which has been evidenced by a significant increase in customer utilization and recurring revenue.
Hipages has experienced an uptick in job connection rates, rising from 71% in the first half of 2022 to 84% in the same period of 2025. Additionally, recurring revenue has shown a steady increase, from 94% in the full year of 2022 to 97% in the first half of 2025. These improvements are attributed to the migration of tradespeople onto the company’s Tradiecore platform, which has been central to the business’s recent advancements.
Canaccord Genuity’s analysts believe that Hipages is well-positioned to leverage these enhancements by extracting more value from the platform. The focus is on optimizing job lead matching, which is expected to result in higher connection rates, more frequent redemption of subscription credits by tradespeople, and subsequent upgrades in subscription tiers. This, in turn, is projected to lead to increased average revenue per user (ARPU) over time.
The investment thesis for Hipages is built around two key expectations: the continued uptake of Tradiecore, which is forecasted to drive increases in ARPU, customer retention, and acquisition, and the benefits arising from a full subscription service model. The latter is anticipated to cultivate a higher quality and more engaged customer base, which should, in turn, drive higher EBITDA margins and robust cash generation.
Analysts project a 12% increase in ARPU for the fiscal year 2025, followed by 10% growth in both fiscal years 2026 and 2027. They also predict an improvement of 500 basis points in EBITDA margins, reaching 27% by the fiscal year 2027. These projections reflect Canaccord Genuity’s confidence in Hipages’ growth trajectory and its ability to capitalize on its recent operational improvements.
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