Cantor Fitzgerald cuts Rivian stock rating, raises target to $15

On Friday, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard downgraded Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock from Overweight to Neutral, while also raising the price target to $15.00 from the previous $13.00. The revision reflects a more cautious outlook on the electric vehicle manufacturer’s future performance in light of new company guidance. According to InvestingPro data, Rivian’s stock has shown high price volatility, with analyst targets ranging from $6.10 to $23.00, reflecting market uncertainty about the company’s prospects.

Sheppard adjusted his forecast for Rivian’s fiscal year 2025 deliveries down to 51,000 vehicles from the previous estimate of 59,402. This change is based on Rivian’s own guidance. Despite the lowered delivery expectations, the analyst increased the revenue projection for the same period to approximately $5.594 billion, up from $5.119 billion. The revised revenue estimates now include expected income from the Software (ETR:SOWGn) and Services segment and assume a higher average selling price due to a reduced number of Electric Delivery Van (EDV) deliveries. Current revenue stands at $4.97 billion, with InvestingPro analysis showing the company is quickly burning through cash while maintaining more cash than debt on its balance sheet.

For fiscal year 2026, the analyst also tempered delivery expectations, reducing the estimate to 76,500 vehicles from the prior forecast of 110,000. This adjustment leads to a lower revenue prediction for FY26 of around $6.765 billion, compared to the earlier estimate of roughly $8.497 billion. With a current market capitalization of $14.32 billion and negative EBITDA of $3.66 billion in the last twelve months, investors can access detailed financial analysis and 10+ additional ProTips through InvestingPro’s comprehensive research reports.

Operational expenses (OpEx) forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 were also revised downwards. The new estimates stand at $3.321 billion and $3.379 billion, respectively, a decrease from the previous forecasts of $3.871 billion and $4.479 billion.

Sheppard’s price target of $15 is derived from a bottom-up, 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. He also outlined key risks that could impact Rivian’s performance, including the potential implementation of new tariffs, the removal of electric vehicle (EV) tax credits, ongoing supply chain disruptions, manufacturing constraints, a highly competitive market, and slower-than-anticipated customer adoption.

In other recent news, Rivian Automotive Inc. reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, showcasing a significant revenue achievement. The company’s revenue reached $1.73 billion, surpassing expectations by $380 million, although the earnings per share (EPS) slightly missed forecasts at -$0.70 compared to the expected -$0.69. Rivian’s automotive segment generated $1.5 billion in revenue, contributing to a gross profit of $110 million with a 7% margin. Meanwhile, CFRA adjusted Rivian’s stock price target to $10, maintaining a Sell rating, citing a 35% stock increase since the third-quarter earnings release and concerns about the potential retraction of a $6.6 billion Energy Department loan.

Goldman Sachs maintained a Neutral rating on Rivian, emphasizing the company’s progress in reducing its cost of goods sold per vehicle by $31,000 year-over-year. The analysts also highlighted Rivian’s advancements in supply chain efficiency and potential growth in software and services. Despite these positive developments, Goldman Sachs pointed out challenges such as policy headwinds affecting demand and Rivian’s forecast of lower vehicle shipments for 2025.

Eicher Motors (NSE:EICH) also saw notable analyst activity, with JPMorgan reiterating an Overweight rating and a price target of EUR 6,100. The firm cited Eicher Motors’ strategic focus on growth, including anticipated recovery in the ultra-premium motorcycle segment and market-share gains in the commercial vehicle business. These recent developments provide a glimpse into the evolving landscape for both Rivian and Eicher Motors, as they navigate industry challenges and opportunities.

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