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On Friday, Cantor Fitzgerald analysts maintained a Neutral rating and a $40.00 price target on Acadia Healthcare (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ACHC), which currently trades at $28.38. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is trading near its 52-week low of $27.61, having declined over 62% in the past year. The firm’s analysts anticipate modest expectations for the first quarter of 2025, projecting that UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) is poised to surpass its 2025 guidance, with potential upward revisions more likely to occur in the second or third quarter of 2025.
The analysts expect that for the first quarter of 2025, investors are looking for a medical loss ratio (MLR) of 85.5%, which is slightly below the FactSet consensus of 85.9%. They noted that UNH is unique in not providing a mid-quarter update on the first quarter’s performance; however, they do not foresee expectations of a significant beat or guidance raise at this time. InvestingPro analysis reveals that 12 analysts have recently revised their earnings downwards for ACHC’s upcoming period, while the company maintains a P/E ratio of 10.96.
Cantor Fitzgerald’s analysts believe that any potential upside may be offset by an increase in conservative reserves for the remainder of the year. They also highlighted that UNH is the only payer that has not included high flu costs in its MLR guidance, which could exert additional pressure on the first quarter results.
The commentary from Cantor Fitzgerald underlines a cautious outlook for Acadia Healthcare, suggesting a steady course ahead with no immediate changes to the company’s stock valuation. The analysts’ insights provide a snapshot of the current expectations for UNH’s financial performance as well as the broader health care sector’s trends and challenges as the first quarter of 2025 comes to a close. For deeper insights into ACHC’s valuation and growth prospects, including exclusive ProTips and comprehensive financial analysis, check out the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, Acadia Healthcare has adjusted its financial outlook, leading Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities to lower its price target from $48.00 to $37.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The revised outlook anticipates average annual revenue growth of 7-9% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 8-10%, which represents a decrease from previous expectations. Meanwhile, Acadia Healthcare has increased its private offering of senior notes to $550 million, up from the initial $500 million, with the proceeds intended to repay existing borrowings. The senior notes, carrying an interest rate of 7.375%, are set to mature in 2033.
Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James has reaffirmed its Strong Buy rating for Acadia Healthcare, maintaining a $40.00 price target and suggesting that a private equity buyout could be plausible. Cantor Fitzgerald also maintained a Neutral rating with a $40.00 price target, noting Acadia’s disciplined pricing strategy and stable staffing levels. The firm’s analysis aligns with Acadia’s operational strength and management’s ability to uphold service offerings. These developments reflect Acadia Healthcare’s strategic maneuvers amid evolving market conditions.
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