Capital One downgrades Atlassian stock on AI competition concerns

Published 16/07/2025, 13:48
Capital One downgrades Atlassian stock on AI competition concerns

Investing.com - Capital One (NYSE:COF) downgraded Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) from Overweight to Equal-weight on Wednesday, while also cutting its price target to $211.00 from $241.00. The downgrade comes as the stock has declined 15% in the past week and 26% over the last six months, according to InvestingPro data.

The investment firm cited "fundamental challenges and valuation multiple compression" as key factors behind its more cautious stance on the software collaboration company. Trading at 36 times book value and maintaining impressive gross profit margins of 82%, Atlassian presents a mixed picture for investors. InvestingPro analysis reveals 8 additional key insights about the company’s valuation and growth prospects.

Capital One expressed concerns about potential ongoing seat growth risk and more limited Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) upside than previously expected for Atlassian.

The firm specifically pointed to "the rise of alternative AI solutions and private code generation" as a disruptive factor that could negatively impact Atlassian’s business model.

These industry shifts could lead to downward estimate revisions for Atlassian in 2026 and beyond, potentially limiting opportunities for multiple expansion, according to Capital One’s analysis.

In other recent news, Atlassian Corporation’s financial developments have drawn attention from various analysts and rating agencies. Moody’s Ratings upgraded Atlassian’s senior unsecured notes to Baa2, maintaining a stable outlook due to expectations of strong revenue growth, particularly from cloud subscriptions, and robust free cash flow generation. Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating on Atlassian, emphasizing potential growth exceeding 20% for fiscal year 2026, despite investor concerns over guidance. Meanwhile, Cantor Fitzgerald adjusted its price target for Atlassian to $256, highlighting a shortfall in multi-year Data Center deals but noting strong cloud migration trends.

Stephens also revised its price target to $221, reflecting cautious sentiment until further clarity on future growth rates is available. TD Cowen adjusted its price target to $250, expressing concerns about IT budget scrutiny and partner structure changes but remaining confident in cloud and enterprise growth trends. The firm’s analysis suggests ongoing debates about Atlassian’s ability to achieve a growth rate exceeding 20% for fiscal year 2026. Despite these adjustments, Atlassian’s strategic focus on cloud services and artificial intelligence continues to be a point of interest among investors.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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