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On Thursday, CFRA analyst Wan Nurhayati updated the price target for ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT:NA) (NYSE: MT), increasing it to €26.00 from the previous €23.00. Despite the adjustment, the firm maintained its Hold rating on the stock. The new price target reflects an enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 4x, which aligns with ArcelorMittal’s historical average. Currently trading at $28.75 and near its 52-week high of $28.95, the steel giant commands a market capitalization of $22.6 billion. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears to be fairly valued based on its proprietary Fair Value model.
The revision follows ArcelorMittal’s fourth-quarter earnings for 2024, which saw a 4.6% quarter-over-quarter increase in EBITDA, attributed to better performance in the Mining segment due to increased iron ore shipments. This improvement helped to mitigate the ongoing weakness observed in the North American market. Despite the quarterly gain, the company’s full-year EBITDA for 2024 experienced a decline of 19.3% year-over-year. The decrease was primarily due to negative price-cost effects and the repercussions of an illegal blockade at its North American operations. InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a healthy current ratio of 1.46 and has received a "GOOD" overall financial health score, suggesting strong fundamentals despite recent challenges.
The blockade issue has since been resolved, and production is anticipated to fully recover in the first quarter of 2025. CFRA notes that this resolution, along with the contributions from completed projects such as the Vega cold rolling mill complex, could offer potential for improvement in 2025.
While near-term demand for ArcelorMittal’s products is expected to remain subdued, the company is optimistic that apparent demand will rise in 2025. In light of the recent financial results, CFRA has adjusted its 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for ArcelorMittal to $3.78, down from the previously projected $4.13. Additionally, CFRA has introduced an EPS estimate of $4.45 for the year 2026.
In other recent news, ArcelorMittal has been the focus of a series of notable developments. Citi has maintained its Buy rating and increased its price target for ArcelorMittal, citing the company’s significant growth potential in the Indian steel market. The firm’s analysis projects an annual volume growth rate of 11% for ArcelorMittal up to 2040, outpacing the Indian market’s forecasted growth of 7%.
In parallel, BofA Securities analyst Patrick Mann upgraded ArcelorMittal from Neutral to Buy, with a price target increase from EUR28.00 to EUR31.00. The upgrade was influenced by a shift in ArcelorMittal’s earnings structure and regional investment focus, with North America now surpassing Europe as the company’s largest source of EBITDA.
ArcelorMittal also reported a resilient Q3 performance in its recent earnings call. The company’s EBITDA per ton margin stood at $118 in Q3, demonstrating resilience amidst market challenges. Furthermore, strategic growth projects are expected to add $1.8 billion in EBITDA, with $1 billion anticipated in the next two years. ArcelorMittal also reaffirmed its commitment to a $10 billion decarbonization target by 2030.
These recent developments underline ArcelorMittal’s strategic growth initiatives and commitment to maintaining a robust EBITDA margin. The company continues to navigate the global market with strategic agility, demonstrating its resilience in the steel and mining industry.
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