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On Tuesday, CFRA analyst Zachary Warring increased the price target for Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:DDS) shares to $420 from $408, while keeping a Hold rating on the stock. The revised price target is influenced by an anticipated improvement in operating efficiencies and margins, as well as the company’s effective capital return program. According to InvestingPro data, Dillard’s boasts a "GREAT" financial health score and has delivered an impressive 42% return over the past six months.
Warring’s updated 12-month price target is based on a 12.0x multiple of the fiscal year 2026 (ending in January) earnings per share (EPS) estimate, which is a slight elevation from the company’s three-year average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.7x. The adjustment reflects the analyst’s perspective on the minimal downside risk for Dillard’s shares. The FY 2026 EPS forecast has been raised by $1.00 to $35.00, and an initial FY 2027 EPS estimate of $36.00 has been introduced. InvestingPro analysis shows the company trades at a P/E of 11.92x and has maintained dividend payments for 54 consecutive years, with a significant 62.5% dividend growth in the last twelve months.
Dillard’s recently reported normalized earnings for the fourth quarter of $13.48 per share, which surpassed consensus estimates by $3.77, although it was down from the previous year’s $15.44 per share. The company’s revenue matched expectations at $2.05 billion. Despite the revenue alignment, Dillard’s experienced a year-over-year gross margin decline of 170 basis points, settling at 34.9%, primarily due to weaker performance in the Home & Furniture and Ladies Apparel segments.
Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses remained consistent year-over-year at 22.4% of revenues, as Dillard’s continues its efforts to control expenses. Warring noted that while the downside to Dillard’s shares appears limited, particularly due to the share buyback program and operational efficiencies, there is also a lack of compelling excitement surrounding the stock at this time.
In other recent news, Dillard’s Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $13.48, surpassing the consensus estimate of $9.35. Revenue for the quarter reached $2.02 billion, which was higher than the anticipated $1.95 billion. Despite these positive figures, Dillard’s faced challenges with its gross margins, which declined to 36.1% from 37.7% in the same quarter the previous year. Additionally, comparable store sales decreased by 1% year-over-year. Inventory levels rose by 7% compared to the prior year, which may indicate potential concerns about excess stock amid weakening consumer demand. For the full fiscal year 2024, net income was reported at $593.5 million, or $36.82 per share, down from $738.8 million, or $44.73 per share, in fiscal 2023. Dillard’s operated 272 stores, including 28 clearance centers, across 30 states at the end of the quarter.
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