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On Friday, Citi analysts adjusted their outlook on Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN), reducing the stock’s price target to $270 from the previous $350, while still upholding a Buy rating. Currently trading at $201.30, the stock sits between analysts’ targets ranging from $169 to $400, according to InvestingPro data. The revision comes as the analysts update their financial model for Coinbase to reflect the latest trends in cryptocurrency asset prices, trading volumes, user engagement, stablecoin and staking activities, as well as Base volumes.
The analysts project a first-quarter net revenue for 2025 that is approximately 4% below the consensus, attributing this to a marginally lower retail spread and a change in volume mix. Their estimate for Subscription and Services revenue aligns with consensus, though they anticipate an increase in stablecoin revenue, which is expected to be offset by a decrease in staking revenue. The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with InvestingPro data showing an impressive 115% revenue growth over the last twelve months and a robust gross profit margin of 86%.
For the first quarter of 2025, Citi’s estimated EBITDA for Coinbase is $891 million, which represents a margin of around 44%. This figure is 6% lower than the consensus, a discrepancy explained by the combination of reduced revenue and an increase in marketing expenditure.
The decision to lower the price target by 23% is primarily due to significant quarter-over-quarter declines in the prices and volumes of cryptocurrency assets. Despite the reduction in the price target, the analysts maintain a positive Buy rating on Coinbase stock, indicating their continued confidence in the company’s performance.
In other recent news, Coinbase Global Inc. has been the focus of several significant developments. Compass Point downgraded Coinbase to a Sell rating with a price target of $180, citing anticipated disappointing first-quarter results and increased competition from decentralized exchanges. Meanwhile, JMP Securities maintained a Market Outperform rating with a $400 price target, highlighting robust growth in Coinbase’s derivatives trading volumes. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $245 price target, emphasizing the potential of Coinbase’s non-trading operations, such as its Layer 2 solution and stablecoin partnerships, to drive future growth.
Additionally, Coinbase has expanded its partnership with PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) Holdings to enhance the utility of the PayPal USD stablecoin, allowing Coinbase users to trade it without fees. In another development, Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) secured a $100 million credit facility from Coinbase Credit, intended to support Riot’s growth initiatives. These developments reflect a dynamic period for Coinbase as it navigates competitive pressures and explores new revenue streams.
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