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On Wednesday, Citi analysts led by Ephrem Ravi revised their price target for Kingspan Group PLC (KSP:ID), a leading insulation and building solutions provider, lowering it to €83.00 from €84.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The adjustment reflects the anticipation of raw material inflation affecting pricing later in the year.
Kingspan’s order intake for its Insulated Panel division remains strong, particularly in the United States, where the company has achieved record orderbook levels. This strength is attributed to slower dispatches in the first quarter of 2025, which was impacted by unfavorable weather conditions. The Data Solutions division’s orderbook spans a longer period, typically around 12 months, offering better visibility into the company’s performance. Current order levels suggest robust growth for this division in the current year.
Despite these positive indicators, the analysts expect pricing to evolve due to the anticipated increase in raw material costs. Kingspan’s management is forecasting a decent growth in trading profit for the first half of 2025, which is likely already factored into current estimates. Consensus estimates are at €461 million, representing a 9.4% year-over-year increase, while Citi’s own estimate stands slightly lower at €458 million, an 8.7% increase from the previous year.
The report identifies several factors that will influence Kingspan’s trading profit. Positive operating leverage and the expansion of the highly profitable Data Solutions division are expected to contribute favorably. However, there are challenges ahead, including continued margin pressures in the Insulation division, particularly due to the commissioning of a new stonewool plant in Germany, and the integration of lower-margin businesses acquired in the Roofing and Waterproofing sector.
In summary, while Kingspan is experiencing robust order intake and is poised for growth in its Data Solutions division, the company must navigate the headwinds of raw material inflation and integration of recent acquisitions to maintain its profitability trajectory.
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