S&P 500 price target lifted at Jefferies on strong earnings season

Published 25/08/2025, 09:32
© Pavlo Gonchar / SOPA Images/Sipa via Reuters Connect

Investing.com -- Jefferies lifted its S&P 500 price target, citing a “broad-based resilience” in the second-quarter earnings season that should ease concerns about the U.S. economy and support elevated market valuations.

Earnings performance improved across the board. Earnings per share (EPS) beats came in at 81%, up from 78% in the first quarter, while sales beats jumped to 82% from 66%.

Sector-wise, tech hardware, software, telecom and high-performance computing led the earnings momentum, while materials, media and discretionary retail lagged.

Banks were the standout improver, with beats at 93%, and Jefferies noted that “more importantly, beats were followed by strong upgrades, the strongest in three years.”

Desh Peramunetilleke, Head of Quantitative Strategy at Jefferies, said AI and the Magnificent Seven were the main drivers, but Financials also delivered, suggesting a strong macro backdrop.

Analyst sentiment also improved markedly. Jefferies used AlphaSense to review 430 company earnings calls and found that only 14% of analysts were cautious or concerned, down from 27% in the first quarter. Focus on AI and technology increased the most, while tariff worries slipped to the second spot among concerns.

The strength in results has already driven upgrades across sectors, though the Magnificent Seven remain well ahead of the broader market.

Jefferies now projects S&P 500 EPS growth of 9.9% for 2025, up from 5.2%, and 12.5% for 2026. The broker said its bull-case scenario of S&P 6600 “is at play.”

Corporate buybacks are also adding support. Announcements so far this year have reached $936 billion, about 30% higher than the same period in 2024.

Reported buybacks totaled $515 billion in the first half, up 12.5% year on year, putting 2025 on track to surpass $1 trillion. Financials and IT have been the biggest contributors.

Jefferies notes that earnings revisions remain a key driver of U.S. equity performance, with revisions outperforming in five of the past six years. Its study shows that a mix of near-term earnings revisions and three-month EPS changes provides the best results, a trend that has also worked well in small caps.

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