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On Thursday, Citi analyst Martin Wilkie adjusted the price target for Thyssenkrupp (ETR:TKAG) Nucera AG (NCH2:GR) to €17.00, a decrease from the previous €18.00, while continuing to recommend a Buy rating for the stock. Wilkie anticipates that the company will maintain its guidance for 2025, supported by its current order backlog. However, he pointed out that the existing backlog for deliveries scheduled for 2026 and beyond, which stands at approximately €200 million, does not yet align with the market’s revenue projections of more than €400 million for the Green Hydrogen (gH2) sector.
The analyst highlighted that no significant electrolyser orders were announced during the second quarter, which puts the pipeline for hydrogen production in 2025 under scrutiny. He noted that while the expansion of Germany’s Hydrogen network is unlikely to stimulate demand in the short term, policy uncertainty in the United States also contributes to an unclear outlook. Despite these factors, Wilkie mentioned that the performance of the Chlor-Alkali division seems to meet expectations, although it represents a lower multiple business.
Wilkie’s analysis suggests that the stock is currently trading at around 13 times the estimated 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization (EBITA) for the Chlor-Alkali division. He argues that the market price does not reflect any value for the green hydrogen business. Consequently, he has revised the forecasts for orders and revenue in 2026 downwards by roughly 12%. Despite the reduced price target and the adjustments to future forecasts, the analyst maintains a Buy rating for Thyssenkrupp Nucera, classifying it as a high-risk investment.
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